Public debt and economic security. External debt and economic security

04.03.2020

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Introduction

Chapter 1. Theoretical aspects of the internal and external debt of the Russian Federation and its impact on economic security

1.1 Russia's domestic debt

1.2 External debt Russia

1.3Characteristics of economic security in relation to external and internal debt

Chapter 1 Conclusions

Chapter 2. Analysis of the current state of Russia's internal and external debt

2.1 Analysis of the current state of Russia's domestic debt, its problems and impact on economic security

2.2 Analysis of the current state of Russia's external debt, its problems and impact on economic security

Chapter 2 Conclusions

Chapter 3. Ways to solve the problematic aspects of Russia's internal and external debt

3.1 Ways to address and improve domestic debt management

Chapter 3 Conclusions

Conclusion

List of used literature

Introduction

IN modern conditions executive power to cover huge public spending not enough tax revenue, and money issue leads to inflation. The refusal of the Government to use the credits of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation for these purposes led to the fact that their place was taken by loans within the country and abroad. As a result of a sharp increase in the budget deficit and growing borrowing, the state debt Russia, both internal and external, so the topic term paper: "Internal and external debt of Russia and its impact on economic security", attracted my attention.

countries, spending economic transformation, always resort to external borrowing, so the problems associated with the management of external and internal public debt, its regulation, with the choice of the right debt policy are very relevant today. Despite the fact that for last years the situation on the government borrowing market in Russia has changed a lot, and for the better, do not forget that any wrong step can lead to serious problems in the future. It is possible to correctly assess the situation only if you know all the features of the public debt, its management and having studied the accumulated experience.

The theoretical significance of this topic of the course work for the economy is that the amount of external and internal public debt of Russia (especially in relation to GDP) is an important indicator of the country's economy, since servicing public debt requires funds from the budget and thus dictates the need to reduce costs, as a rule, for social needs, which is reflected in the standard of living of the population. Therefore, competent management of the size and structure of internal and external public debt is an important socio-economic task that requires a good theoretical justification.

The practical significance of this topic for the economy lies in the fact that the analysis of the current state of the external and internal debt of Russia and the determination of the level of its influence on the state of the financial system, monetary circulation and economic security of the country make further study of the topic necessary and timely to identify the best ways to address the emerging economic problems aspects.

The purpose of this course work is to identify the importance of Russia's internal and external debt and its impact on economic security, analysis and identification of problems associated with its functioning in modern Russia, and ways to solve them.

To achieve this goal, the following tasks were defined:

To study, analyze and summarize the literature on the topic of work;

To reveal the role and significance of the internal and external debt of the Russian Federation;

Describe economic security in relation to public debt;

Analyze the current state of Russia's internal and external debt, its problems and impact on economic security;

Suggest and consider ways to solve the problematic aspects of this issue of the topic.

Chapter1 . TheoreticalAspectsinternalAndexternaldebtRFAndhisinfluenceeoneconomicsafety

The problem of the debt dependence of the state and, above all, to foreign creditors, has always been of great importance, since the full realization of the sovereignty of the state is possible only with a certain economic independence. Therefore, first of all, it is necessary to consider the concept of "public debt".

Public debt is an inevitable product of a budget deficit, the causes of which are associated with a decline in production, with an increase in marginal costs, unsecured emission of money, an increase in the cost of financing the military-industrial complex, an increase in the volume of the shadow economy, non-production costs, losses, theft, etc. Economic theory: studies. allowance. - M.: RIOR, 2008. - S. 154.

In the scientific literature, public debt refers to obligations arising from government borrowing assumed by the Russian Federation, guarantees or guarantees for third party obligations, other obligations, as well as obligations of third parties assumed by the Russian Federation.

Public debt is divided into internal and external. Let's consider them in more detail.

1.1 InteriordutyRussia

1. 1.1 conceptAndmeaninginternalstatedebtRF

Interiorstateduty represents the amount of debt to its citizens and enterprises. It exists as the sum of issued and outstanding debt obligations.

In the Budget Code of the Russian Federation, a narrower concept is given - liabilities arising in foreign currency are recognized as internal public debt Russian Federation.

The volume of the state internal debt of Russia includes:

Principal nominal amount of debt on government securities;

The volume of principal debt on loans received by Russia;

The volume of principal debt on budget loans and budget credits received by Russia from budgets of other levels;

The volume of obligations under state guarantees provided by the Russian Federation.

The debt obligations of the Russian Federation are repaid within the terms determined by the specific terms of the loan and cannot exceed 30 years.

It is not allowed to change the conditions of a state loan put into circulation, including the terms of repayment and the amount of interest payments, the circulation period. Budget Code of the Russian Federation. Text with amendments and additions as of February 15, 2008 - M., 2008. - p.67-68.

The payment of income on loans and their repayment is one of the main items budget spending. In conditions when the public debt reaches a level at which the country is not able to meet its debt obligations in a timely manner, the government is forced to resort to their consolidation, i.e. change in the terms of the loan, associated with a change in repayment terms, when Short-term liabilities are consolidated into long-term and medium-term, or conversion - a decrease in the amount of interest paid on a loan or its transformation into long-term foreign investment.

The main purpose of issuing loans in today's Russia is to cover the budget deficit and refinance previous loans. This means that for the amount of debt that must be repaid in this year issuing new loans. An increase in public spending entails an increase in loans and debt, so the public domestic debt is closely related to the state budget as a fact of its origin.

Summarizing the above, we can give a brief definition of domestic public debt - this is the total amount of all government loans issued, but not yet repaid, and interest not paid on them.

If we use more “dry” terms, internal debt according to one of the classifications is a way to replenish the state treasury by borrowing funds from the population and legal entities registered in the state and paying taxes to the treasury of this state, under state guarantees by issuing state valuable papers.

The state domestic debt is secured by assets at the disposal of the Government of the Russian Federation.

Service of the state internal debt of the Russian Federation is carried out by the Bank of Russia and its institutions, unless otherwise provided by the Government of the Russian Federation, by carrying out operations for the placement of Russian debt obligations, their redemption and payment of income in the form of interest on them or in another form.

1.1.2 Forms and types of internal debt of the Russian Federation

In Russia, the following forms domestic debt:

government loans carried out by issuing securities on behalf of the Russian Federation;

agreements on the provision of state guarantees by the Russian Federation;

contracts and agreements on receipt by the Russian Federation of budget loans and budget credits from budgets of other levels budget system RF;

agreements and contracts concluded on behalf of the Russian Federation on the prolongation and restructuring of the debt obligations of the Russian Federation of previous years.

It is possible to conditionally define the following kinds domestic debt obligations: marketable, existing in the form of issue-grade securities, and non-marketable, resulting from the execution federal budget and issued to finance the resulting debt. The market domestic debt obligations of Russia today include:

SH state short-term bonds(GKO) - a registered zero-coupon government security issued in non-documentary form, their issue is formalized by a global certificate stored in the Bank of Russia;

Ш federal loan bonds with a variable coupon (OFZ-PK), with a constant coupon income (OFZ-PD), with a fixed coupon (OFZ-FK) - the first medium-term securities that appeared in Russia;

Sh bonds federal loan with debt amortization (OFZ-AD) - are registered coupon medium-term and long-term government securities. One difference from previously issued bonds is the redemption of their nominal value in installments on the dates specified by the decision to issue a separate issue of bonds.

Ш government savings bonds (GSS) - available to individuals and legal entities, their goal is to attract free Money people to cover the budget deficit.

Non-marketable debt obligations include: bills of exchange

Ministry of Finance, debt to the Central Bank, etc. Kovaleva A.M. Debentures. M., 2006. - pp. 24 - 25.

1. 2 ExternaldutyRussia

Externalstateduty- debts to citizens and organizations of foreign states. This is the heaviest debt, since the state is bound by a number of targeted obligations on it, on the one hand, and on the other hand, it has to be paid in valuable goods and pay high interest. It must also be remembered that the lender usually sets certain conditions, after which the loan is granted. In some developing countries ax annual obligations of payments on loans exceed all receipts from foreign economic activity.

The amount of public debt in the national part of external debt depends on the dynamics of the exchange rate. If the exchange rate has changed between the dates of determining the amounts of debt, then the revaluation of the amount of external debt denominated in foreign currency into rubles is one of the factors in changing the total amount of public debt. This is especially important due to the fact that structurally the state external debt consists of two parts: the main debt (capital) and outstanding debt(current), which includes, in addition to the main one, interest on debt amounts.

The state external debt of the Russian Federation (including liabilities former USSR adopted by the Russian Federation) consists of:

· debts to countries - participants of the Paris Club;

· debts to countries that are not members of the Paris Club;

· debts on credits of foreign commercial banks and firms;

debts to international financial organizations;

· debts to former CMEA countries (Council for Mutual Economic Assistance);

Eurobond loans (Eurobonds are medium-term or long-term securities issued in a currency other than the national currency of the issuer, having medium- or long-term circulation on the territory of foreign states, except for the issuer's country);

· OVGVZ (bonds of the internal state foreign currency loan) - government securities issued for the purpose of reissuing debts of the former USSR on funds on accounts of Russian legal entities with Vnesheconombank;

· credits of the Central Bank of Russia.

The external debt of the Russian Federation in terms of international financial organizations includes government debt obligations to the following organizations:

l International Monetary Fund (IMF);

b international bank reconstruction and development (IBRD);

b European bank reconstruction and development (EBRD).

These organizations belong to the specialized agencies of the United Nations.

1.3 Characteristiceconomicsecuritywith regard toToexternalAndinternaldebt

Economic security is traditionally regarded as the most important quality characteristic economic system, which determines its ability to maintain normal living conditions for the population, sustainable provision of resources for the development of the national economy, as well as the consistent implementation of national-state interests.

As world experience shows, ensuring economic security is a guarantee of a country's independence, a condition for stability and effective functioning of society, and success. This is explained by the fact that the economy is one of the vital aspects of the activity of society, the state and the individual, and, therefore, the concept of national security will be an empty word without assessing the viability of the economy, its strength against possible external and internal threats. Therefore, ensuring economic security is one of the most important national priorities.

The buildup of domestic debt is less dangerous for national economy compared to the growth of its external debt. There is no leakage of goods and services when domestic debt is repaid, but there are certain changes in economic life, the consequences of which can be very significant. This is due to the fact that the repayment of the state internal debt leads to a redistribution of income within the country.

For economic security, it is not the indicators themselves that matter, but their threshold values. Threshold values are limiting values, non-compliance with the values of which prevents the normal course of development of various elements of reproduction, leads to the formation of negative, destructive trends in the field of economic security. Approaching their maximum permissible value indicates an increase in threats to the socio-economic stability of society, and exceeding the limit, or threshold, values indicates that society has entered a zone of instability and social conflicts, that is, a real undermining of economic security. From the point of view of external threats, the maximum permissible level of external and internal public debt can serve as an indicator.

The growth of domestic and foreign public debt entails real negative economic consequences, i.e., negatively affects the economic security of the country.

First, the payment of interest on public debt increases income inequality, since a significant part of government obligations is concentrated among the wealthiest part of the population. The redemption of the state domestic debt leads to the fact that money from the pockets of the less wealthy segments of the population is transferred to the more wealthy, that is, those who own bonds become even richer.

Secondly, raising tax rates as a means of paying off or reducing public domestic debt can undermine the effect of economic incentives for the development of production, reduce interest in investing in new risky enterprises, and also increase social tension in society.

Thirdly, the existence of an external debt presupposes the transfer of a part of the product created within the country abroad (in the case of payment of interest or principal amounts).

Fourthly, the growth of external debt reduces the international authority of the country.

Fifth, when the government borrows from the capital market to refinance debt or pay interest on the public debt, this inevitably leads to an increase in the rate of interest on capital. An increase in the interest rate entails a decrease in capitalized value, a reduction in private investment, as a result, subsequent generations can inherit an economy with a reduced productive potential and all the negative consequences that follow from this.

conclusionsBychapter1

It can be said that the market for internal and external debt of Russia is an integral part of the national financial system, in connection with which its positive and negative characteristics directly affect both the state financial sphere and the progressive development of the real sector of the country's economy. The main benefit for the state, which justifies the usefulness of internal and external public debt, is the ability to attract borrowed funds to the budget and at the same time maintain the relative amount of debt - as a percentage of GDP (for a certain period of time, for the economic cycle)

Hence, negative consequences of government debt are related to the fact that interest payments on domestic debt increase income inequality and require higher taxes, which undermine economic incentives for the development of production, and can also increase the overall level of interest rates and crowd out private investment finance.

It is established here that the growth of Russia's external and internal debt negatively affects the country's economic security - a complex socio-economic concept that reflects a wide range of constantly changing conditions of material production, external and internal threats to the country's economy. An effective system for ensuring economic security is a matter of life for any state. This is all the more important for today's Russia, which is striving to take its rightful place in the global geopolitical and economic space.

Chapter2 . AnalysiscontemporarystatesinternalAndexternaldebtRussia

2.1 AnalysiscontemporarystatesinternaldebtRussia,hisproblemsAndinfluenceoneconomicsafety

Let's follow the dynamics of the growth of Russia's domestic public debt from November 1, 2003 to October 1, 2008 (Fig. 1)

Rice. 1. Growth of Russia's domestic debt from 01.11.2003 to 01.10.2008 in billion rubles.

The graph shows that domestic debt is growing every year, and at a fairly rapid pace. From November 1, 2003 to October 1, 2008, it increased by 718.13 billion rubles. On the one hand, this may indicate an increase in the debt burden on its servicing on the state budget, but, on the other hand, domestic government debt obligations perform very important functions: firstly, operations in the domestic market are a very important tool public policy macroeconomic regulation, in connection with this, servicing domestic debt is a kind of “payment” for using this instrument; secondly, government debt is considered the most important means of investing money all over the world (albeit a low-yielding one), so the possibility of such an investment allows investors to more effectively control their financial risks.

The rapid growth of the volume of debt, the critical value of the cost of servicing it, forces us to look for the root causes of such dynamics. We note three factors: the high share of government spending in structure of GDP; inaccurate financial account of the budget deficit, leading to its double underestimation; high yield of government securities.

In the law on the federal budget of the Russian Federation for 2008, the maximum amount of the state internal debt as of October 1, 2008 is set at 1,378.5 billion rubles.

As of January 1, 2008, the internal debt of the Russian Federation amounted to 1 trillion 248.848 billion rubles. Thus, the domestic debt of the Russian Federation, expressed in government securities, increased from the New Year to October 1 by 129.652 billion rubles, as can be seen from Fig. 2.

Rice. 2. State internal debt of the Russian Federation in billion rubles.

Today in Russia, debt on government securities occupies the largest share in government domestic debt (Fig. 3.)

As can be seen from fig. 3. As of October 1, 2008, there are no GKOs (government zero-coupon short-term bonds) in circulation on the Russian securities market, and all marketable securities are represented exclusively by OFZ (federal loan bonds) and GSO (government savings bonds).

Rice. 3. Structure of the state domestic debt, expressed in government securities, as of October 1, 2008

of government debt in securities belongs to OFZ with debt amortization (OFZ-AD) - 64% (882.24 billion rubles). The share of OFZ with a constant coupon income (OFZ-PD) is estimated at 23.79% (327.95 billion rubles); GSO with a fixed interest rate of coupon income (GSO-FPS) - 9% (124 billion rubles); OFZ with a fixed coupon (OFZ-FK) - 2.45% (33.77 billion rubles); GSO with a constant interest rate of coupon income (GSO-PPP) - 0.76% (10.48 billion rubles).

According to the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, the growth of domestic public debt in October was mainly due to the placement of GSO-FPS for 8 billion rubles. In addition, OFZ-PD for 0.253 billion rubles was placed and OFZ-AD for 0.303 billion rubles was redeemed

The increase in domestic debt can be attributed to the sterilization of the money supply in government bonds. According to analysts, the increase in domestic public debt may also result in the fact that with an increase in the supply of government securities, rates in the bond market as a whole will increase. As a result, it is possible to achieve a decrease in investment activity and cool the economy.

Let's consider the values of the indicators of the internal debt of the Russian Federation for 2008 and compare them with the threshold values of the economic security indicator: the present value of the total public internal debt to the volume of GDP is 24% (and the threshold value is 52.0%); the present value of the total domestic public debt to the revenues of the state (federal) budget is 58.3% (the threshold value is 200%).

Thus, the values of the internal debt sustainability indicators of the Russian Federation do not go beyond the threshold values of debt indicators, but are not far from them either.

However, the growth of domestic debt is one of the factors negatively affecting the country's economic security.

Consider the main existing problems of domestic public debt in Russia:

Ш The deficit budget leads to an accelerated growth of the state domestic debt.

Ш All current budget underfunding over the past six years, which acquires surrogate forms, is written off to the state domestic debt. This is a debt to agricultural enterprises, organizations engaged in northern delivery, re-issued in treasury bills, a bonded loan to pay off commodity obligations and debt to central bank RF, pension fund etc.

Ø There is no medium- and long-term planning, including the preparation of the draft federal budget, the composition and volume of the state debt, as well as the schedules for its repayment. Without such a forecast, at least for a two to three year period, it is impossible to conduct a perspective analysis of the situation.

Ш The concepts of internal and external debt are gradually converging. This process is accelerated when using such a form of borrowing as the issuance of securities, including those denominated in foreign currency. Thus, the need for a reasonable long-term policy of the Russian Federation in the field of domestic public debt management becomes obvious.

2.2 AnalysiscontemporarystatesexternaldebtRussia,hisproblemsAndinfluenceoneconomicsafety

In 2004-2008, the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin, taking into account the growth of Russia's income from oil exports, associated with the rapid growth of world prices for this raw material, set the task of minimizing the scale of external public debt. As a result of lengthy negotiations, by the end of August 2006, Russia had made early payments of $22.5 billion on loans from the Paris Club.

As of October 1, 2008, Russia's external public debt in absolute terms amounted to $40.4 billion, which is one of the lowest rates in Europe.

Let's consider the dynamics of Russia's external debt from January 1, 2000 to October 1, 2008 (Fig. 4.).

Rice. 4. Dynamics of Russia's external debt from 01/01/2000 to 10/01/2008 in billion dollars

The peak of the Russian public debt came in 1998 (146.4% of GDP). As of January 1, 2000, external debt reached 158.7 billion dollars (and the total external and internal public debt was 84% of GDP) - the highest indicator of the state of external debt in fig. 4. And in recent years, there has been a trend towards a reduction in the external debt of the Russian Federation: as of October 1, 1008, it fell to 40.4 billion dollars.

For the federal level of the state, the Budget Code of the Russian Federation establishes that the maximum volume of state external borrowings of the Russian Federation should not exceed the annual volume of payments for servicing and repaying the state external debt of the Russian Federation. This is done in order to prevent the unlimited growth of the state's debt dependence on external creditors and the growth of a negative impact on the country's economic security.

The size of the public debt in absolute terms does not give a complete picture of the state of the economy and the solvency of the country. To assess the ability of the debtor country to fulfill obligations to repay and service the accumulated volume of public debt, world practice has developed debt indicators (coefficients). One of the criteria for assessing debt sustainability is the analysis of the amount of resources available to the debtor country, that is, the size and growth rate of GDP compared to public debt. This indicator allows assessing the level of debt burden on the country's economy and reflects its potential to reorient national production towards exports in order to obtain foreign currency and ensure the ability to repay external debt. The higher this indicator, the greater the share of income from the sale of the manufactured product, the state is forced to direct not to internal development and to fulfill debt obligations to external creditors. If the accumulated debt exceeds the amount of funds, which on average and long term the debtor country can send to fulfill its debt obligations, a situation of "debt overhang" arises. The conditional boundary of the beginning of such a dangerous state of external debt is considered to be the excess of debt by 50% of GDP. A similar situation has been characteristic of the economy of the Russian Federation since the early 1990s. and up to 2001. In recent years, the volume of public debt, its specific gravity in terms of GDP has a steady downward trend. If in 2002 the volume of external borrowings was 35.88% of GDP, in 2008 it was 7.12%.

The dynamics of this indicator is shown in fig. 5.

Rice. 5. The ratio of external public debt to GDP in%.

In the future, according to the adopted three-year budget for the period 2008-2010, the public debt should be reduced to 2.5% of GDP.

Let us consider the structure of the state external debt of Russia as of October 1, 2008. (Table 1.)

Table 1

The structure of Russia's external public debt as of October 1, 2008. RIA Novosti - Economics // Finance. - 2008 - No. 8. - With. 5.

Name	Amount, billion dollars
Public external debt of the Russian Federation (including obligations of the former USSR assumed by the Russian Federation)
Debt to official creditors - members of the Paris Club
Debt to official creditors - not members of the Paris Club
Debts to former CMEA countries
Commercial debt of the former USSR
Debt to international financial organizations
Debt on Eurobond loans
OVGVZ debt
Provision of guarantees of the Russian Federation in foreign currency

From table 1 it follows that the debt to official creditors - members of the Paris Club amounted to 1.4 billion dollars on October 1, 2008 against 1.8 billion dollars on January 1, to countries that are not members of the Paris Club - 2.0 billion dollars ($2.2 billion at the beginning of the year), former countries CMEA (Council for Mutual Economic Assistance) - $1.5 billion (remained unchanged since the beginning of the year). Also, the commercial debt of the former USSR as of October 1 of this year is estimated at $0.8 billion (0.7 billion as of January 1), debts to international financial organizations - at $4.6 billion against $5.0 billion at the beginning of the year.

As of October 1, Russia's obligations on Eurobond loans amounted to $27.7 billion (at the beginning of the year - $28.6 billion), on bonds of domestic state foreign currency loans (OVGVZ) - $1.8 billion (4.5 billion as of January 1). As of October 1, 2008, Russia's guarantees in foreign currency amounted to $0.6 billion, the same as at the beginning of the year, according to the Ministry of Finance.

We see that today in Russia the largest debt in the structure of external public debt is debt on Eurobond loans, and the smallest is the commercial debt of the former USSR and the provision of guarantees to the Russian Federation in foreign currency.

According to the World Bank, Russia's total external debt (private and federal sector) as of October 1, 2008 is $540.5 billion, compared to the data of January 1, 2008 - $463.5 billion, it increased by $77 billion. dollars.

External public debt is repaid by borrowing in the domestic market. As a result, since 2002, a rapid increase in domestic public debt began. If at the beginning of 2004 the internal debt was 19.4% of the external debt, then at the end of 2008 this figure increased to 92.3%.

The systematic replacement of external debt with internal is a positive factor for the economy because debt denominated in the national currency is easier to manage by the monetary authorities, which is especially important in times of crisis.

Let us consider the values of the external debt of the Russian Federation for 2008 and compare them with the threshold values of the economic security indicator: the present value of the country's total external debt to GDP in 2008 is 21.4% (and the threshold value is 43%); the present value of the total external debt countries to the volume of exports of goods and non-factorial services - 110.2% (threshold - 190%).

Thus, the values of external debt sustainability indicators

The Russian Federation does not go beyond the threshold values of debt indicators, but is not far from them either.

However, the growth of external debt is one of the factors seriously complicating the economic "recovery" of the country and negatively affecting its economic security.

Let's consider the main existing problems of external debt in Russia.

Ш Now the focus in the activities of managing external debt has shifted, first of all, to pursuing a responsible policy of state external borrowing. One of the main problems is the reasonable determination of the limits of new external borrowing. If we proceed from the orientation towards the "zero" option, in other words, to curb the growth of nominal public debt, then the annual volume of newly attracted foreign credits and loans should correspond approximately to the size of the annual repayment of external debt.

Ш Another component that requires serious study is the formation of an optimal structure for external borrowing. Attention should be paid to the structure of borrowings by maturity and to the problem of the unsettled issue of the sources of servicing and debt repayment.

Ш Difficulties also arise in the implementation of the scheme for exchanging debt for shares of national companies. The problem is that debt-to-equity conversions are only successful if they offer foreign investors the best local assets, including state-owned enterprises. Therefore, the program may give foreign investors an undue advantage over local investors in purchasing the most liquid assets.

Ш The information available to the executive branch on the debt is largely closed to the public, which causes difficulties in the analysis, and hence the development of a proposal to mitigate the debt problem.

Ø The financial system lacks highly qualified

specialists in dealing with external public debt, the existing staff needs the necessary tools and modern technology.

internal external debt security

conclusionsBychapter 2

This chapter showed that Russia's internal debt as of October 1, 2008 was set at 1,378.5 billion rubles, while Russia's external debt as of October 1, 2008 was set at $40.4 billion.

After analyzing the current state of Russia's external and internal debt in the second chapter of the work, we can say that the country's internal debt is growing every year, and at a fairly rapid pace, and Russia's external debt is noticeably reduced, due to the fact that it is repaid through borrowing in the domestic market. But today, the amount of domestic debt is just over 4% of GDP and, therefore, it does not create a significant burden on the economy and budget. Moreover, the growth rate of domestic debt is quite comparable with the growth rate of GDP. This leads to the conclusion that the systematic replacement of external debt with internal is a positive factor for the economy, because debt denominated in the national currency is easier to manage by the monetary authorities, which is especially important during times of crisis.

It was noted here that in modern Russia there are many economic problems and threats associated with external and internal debt, the analysis of which allows us to conclude that there is a need for a radical change in approaches to ensuring the economic security of the country. The growth of economic threats is largely due to miscalculations in the choice of strategy and tactics of Russian reforms. Thus, the need for a reasonable long-term policy of the state in the field of managing domestic and external debt and developing a well-thought-out concept for ensuring the economic security of the country becomes obvious.

Chapter 3 . WayssolutionsproblematicaspectsinternalAndexternaldebtRussia

From an analysis of the current state of Russia's external and internal debt, we can say that operating system management of external and internal debt requires improvement, therefore, it is necessary to identify and consider ways to solve the problematic aspects of Russia's internal and external debt.

3.1 WayssolutionsproblemsinternaldebtAndimprovementVmanagementthem

Public domestic debt is a very important indicator, its parameters are closely related to macroeconomic characteristics, and the management of public domestic debt has a direct impact on them. Therefore, it is necessary to pay more attention to the debt policy of public domestic debt management.

F continue to follow suit with foreign countries in the predominance of domestic debt over external debt, i.e., to increase the share of domestic debt, while reducing service costs;

F expand the list of instruments through which financial resources will be attracted in the domestic market;

F it is necessary to decide on the classifications of the terms of circulation of government securities in the financial market;

F it is necessary to provide stable servicing of the country's internal obligations in any crisis situation;

F respond flexibly to changing conditions of the domestic financial market and use the most favorable sources and forms of borrowing;

F need to innovate to attract investors to the government securities market;

F to improve the accounting and monitoring of public domestic debt, the introduction of advanced debt management technologies that allow you to control the state of the debt burden of the economy and track the implementation of government obligations in real time;

F it is necessary to revise the system of taxation. Changing the taxation system in accordance with the needs of a particular class of investors is the strongest incentive measure aimed at attracting a certain group of investors to the government securities market. The most interesting, in terms of stimulation investment activity represented by the American system of taxation. (The American tax system encourages the purchase of securities by the public. In many states, securities are excluded from property taxation. Interest on securities whose issuers are specified in tax legislation also do not include payment income tax. In addition, the taxpayer may exclude 50% of the income received from the sale of securities in his possession from his gross income in the event that the specified securities were owned by him for 6 or more months. Similar tax incentives stimulate the purchase of securities by the population on long term. Thanks to these measures, state and municipal borrowers can receive additional investment resources.)

In the field of taxation, the US experience can be used, but it should be noted that the application of the US experience in Russia is currently possible on an extremely limited scale. But, at the same time, reasonableness and targeting of measures tax regulation government securities can serve as an ideal example for building similar systems in Russian conditions.

The implementation of the measures proposed above will help mitigate the problems of Russia's domestic debt and increase the efficiency of its management in the near and long term.

3.2 WayssolutionsproblemsinternaldebtAndimprovementVmanagementthem

The problems of external debt make a constructive dialogue between Russia and the developed countries of the world on the issues of writing off external debt almost impossible and create conditions for a serious crisis in relations between them.

F Improve system service state debt through her commercialization. For this Maybe used mentioned agency By management debt, salary employees whom depended would from results their activities. Except Togo, some Part state debt portfolio Maybe temporarily be transmitted V controlled control several independent managers What will allow Ministry Finance compare methods And results their activities With operations their employees.

F Send function operational management public debt from Ministry of Finance Russia V conducting independent state structure, similar "autonomous agencies" row European countries. IN printing passed messages, What getting ready documentation By creation on base VEB commercial jar And agencies By service external debt. After implementation these projects, at Governments rf, apparently will appear structure, which will be able operate on market V quality autonomous units, What will allow decide problem ransom debt, Not affecting bilateral state level.

F Improve state sources service external debt. IN budgetary sphere appropriate establishing restrictions on size deficit federal budget. Practice formation surplus budget demonstrates solid intention Governments RF pay off By debts. Required search additional sources income budget, V particular should draw attention on income from privatization, which often are used For decrease debt. Note What at carrying out privatization exists opportunity release state convertible bonds. They are placed on international financial markets convertible state bonds, which By wish investor may exchange on stock privatized enterprises.

F Available release mobilization internal monetary loan V volumes, necessary For consistent coatings payments By external debt (or their parts). So the way will change nature debt through transition from external forms in internal, What will determine distribution income V benefit Russian population, A Not foreigners. But For this needed system solid guarantees By loans.

F Improve Russian legislation V plan extensions And clarifications acts O state external borrowings, A Also With goal formation reliable national market derivatives financial tools. IN conditions ongoing outflow capital from countries necessary tightening norms monetary legislation.

F Required provide stable service external obligations countries at any crisis situations.

F Organize training qualified specialists V areas management external debt. For this necessary introduction relevant disciplines V universities countries.

F Organize more close coordination state politicians And politicians external borrowings corporate structures, to to avoid unnecessary competition on financial markets And risks, related With possible non-compliance corporate debt obligations.

F Necessary flexible to react on changing conditions external financial market And use most favorable sources And forms borrowings.

On According to economists, the implementation of the above measures will help mitigate the problem of payments on external debt, increase the efficiency of public external debt management in the short and long term.

conclusionsBychapter 3

Given the tendency to reduce the external debt of the Russian Federation and reduce the debt burden on the economy of the Russian Federation, its structure is still not optimal in terms of debt management. Therefore, this chapter proposes practical advice for improvement and optimization Russian system management of public external and internal debt

I believe that all economic transformations should proceed from such a concept in order to prevent Russia from losing its national and economic independence.

On the basis of the issues considered and studied, the following conclusions can be drawn that the further main tasks of the state aimed at maintaining the stability of the market for external and internal borrowing should be: reducing the volume and changing the structure of external and internal public debt, allowing guaranteed fulfillment of obligations for its repayment and servicing and refinance debt, regardless of the state of the federal budget; implementation of state internal borrowings in an amount that allows to actively develop the market for corporate and municipal borrowings that provide financing for investments in industries and regions; improvement of Russian legislation in terms of expanding and clarifying acts on state internal and external borrowing, as well as in order to form a reliable national market for derivative financial instruments.

Subjects of borrowing

The settlement of external debt is the primary task of any national government. This is due, first of all, to the fact that the presence of overdue debt can close the country's access to all world credit markets, forcing it to agree to attract financial resources on unfavorable terms proposed by the IMF and by the World Bank. The official external debt of most countries is in the hands of the Paris and London Clubs, the IMF and the World Bank.

The main subjects of the loan can be:

Government or local authorities.
Banks, funds, Insurance companies and others financial institutions.
Large national enterprises.

External borrowing instruments include direct appeals to the relevant global financial institutions, as well as the issuance government bonds that can be bought by non-residents.

External debt of the Russian Federation

After the collapse of the USSR, the Russian Federation assumed the obligation to service the debt of the now independent republics, except for Ukraine. Thus, the external debt of the Russian Federation as of 1993 amounted to about 70 billion US dollars. Under an agreement with the Paris Club, Russia had to pay 2.5 billion every year. As of 2014, the debt was US$599.5 billion. Compared to the previous reporting period, it decreased by 19%. Most of it falls on the debt of national enterprises and banking sector. The external debt of the Russian Federation is 23% of GDP. For comparison: Japan - 400%, Ireland - 390%, Singapore - 382%, Portugal - 358%, Belgium - 327%, and neighboring Ukraine - 81%. It should be noted that the external debt of the USSR was paid by Russia in June 2006, and the private obligations of enterprises continue to be paid to this day.

External debt of countries

As of 2015, 9 countries have a ratio of total debt to non-residents to their GDP, the value of which exceeds 300%. This means that in order to pay off their external debt, it would take them three years to sell all their final goods at market prices, reducing consumption to zero, which is basically impossible. Moreover, 40% of states have debts that exceed their GDP. The top ten are: Japan, Iceland, Singapore, Portugal, Belgium, the Netherlands, Greece, Spain, Denmark, Sweden and France. Each next global financial crisis or industrial downturn could exacerbate the situation, bringing these developed countries to the brink of bankruptcy.

Problems of economic security

According to the legislation of the European Union, the external debt of member countries cannot exceed 60% of their GDP. But to date, only half of the EU member states fulfill this requirement. This situation can lead to a financial crisis. This is due to the difficulty of servicing the loan if the country is not a major world exporter, like the United States, and political pressure. However, one should not forget that major economies were built just at the expense of attracted free funds of non-residents. Therefore, the problem of security is associated primarily with the inefficient use of the resources received.

Analysis of external debt

According to the IMF methodology, the following indicators are used to assess the state's debt to foreign creditors:

the ratio of total debt to exports of services and goods;
share of liabilities in gross national income;
the ratio of interest to GNI;
the quotient of the division of state reserves into external debt;
share of liabilities to international organizations in total.

At the same time, it is believed that the ratio of debt to export should be in the range of 200-250%, and interest on it should be 20-25%. It should be noted that in such calculations only state-guaranteed obligations are taken into account.

The inability to service external debt and political dependence on creditor countries is not a threat to economic security as long as the state is able to effectively use the borrowed funds. Therefore, it is up to the national government whether foreign borrowing becomes a threat or new opportunity for development.

EXTERNAL DEBT IS A THREAT TO NATIONAL SECURITY

HELL. Antonova, E.V. Ponomarenko

Peoples' Friendship University of Russia Miklukho-Maklaya, 6, Moscow, Russia, 117198

The article is devoted to one of the key problems of our time - the issue of increasing external government borrowing and methods of managing public and total debts used in different countries.

An analytical review of the current state of the world debt market, a brief analysis of the structure of the world debt is given. On the example of a number of developed and developing countries, the characteristic directions of the manifestation of threats to the national economic security of the country are shown, and the urgent need to develop an effective national strategy on external debt management, which is extremely important for both developing and developed countries.

Keywords: external debt, debt crisis, global debt geography, economic security, credit rating, standard of living, sovereignty

The constant increase in public spending, cyclical fluctuations in the economy (crises, economic recession) and extraordinary circumstances (for example, wars or natural disasters), the superposition of all these phenomena on each other in recent decades, inexorably entail consequences expressed in the growth of the budget deficit and public debt as the volume of accumulated deficits.

The government's debt portfolio is usually the largest financial portfolio of the government. It presents an increasingly complex structure financial obligations countries (assets obtained from all sources of financing, both external and internal), the use of which may pose a serious risk to state budget and financial stability of any state. In the absence of proper control and an effective management system, the critical level of debt of the government of a particular country may well become a real threat to national economic security.

Almost all countries of the world are facing the problem of public debt, which indicates the widespread use of debt instruments to finance the budget deficit. The Government's Public Sector Debt Servicing Policy Has a Direct Impact on Stability public finance, investment climate and position on the world stage of a particular country. As you know, it was the underestimation of risks and the lack of a coherent and flexible public debt management system that triggered the most severe European debt crisis as a continuation of the global financial crisis of 2008-2009, the consequences of which are still observed today in a number of countries of the European Union.

Regardless of the exchange rate regime or the type of public debt, crises often arose because governments overemphasized the potential cost savings associated with large amounts of short-term loans and floating-rate debt (the interest rate on which is recalculated at a predetermined rate, for example, depending on the change in the rate on treasury bills). As a result, public budgets are exposed to serious negative impacts due to changes in financial market conditions, including a decrease in the creditworthiness of the paying country at the moment when the debt is accepted for repayment.

Foreign currency debt also carries certain risks. For example, excessive reliance on foreign currency debt can lead to sharp fluctuations exchange rate and/or financial pressure if investors are unwilling to refinance government foreign currency debt. Thus, the growing global debt is becoming an increasingly urgent problem, affecting not only developing countries, but also most developed countries, and must be carefully considered in order to maintain the stability of public finances.

As a rule, when considering this issue, the dynamics of external public debt in relation to country's GDP. This indicator is a basic indicator of the economic security of any country and is limited only to the top threshold value 60% of GDP according to the 1992 Maastricht criteria in the countries of the European Union, as well as a critical level of 50% of GDP, according to the criteria developed by the International Monetary Fund.

An analysis of the geography of the world debt, its level and structure (Fig. 1, 2) allows us to note the trends that can be traced to date.

Most high level public debt, both in relative and absolute terms, is observed in the most developed economies of the world - the United States, Japan and the countries of the European Union. In most of these countries, the percentage of public sector debt to GDP exceeds the critical 60%, and in some cases even overcomes its 100% value.

The US and the EU prefer to borrow on foreign markets, while countries with dynamically developing economies (in this case we are talking about the BRICS countries) and Japan are more oriented towards the domestic market, which provides them with a certain “safety cushion”, since debt denominated in national currency is easier and cheaper to service than debt in foreign currency.

Despite such an extensive practice of using external debt financing, this tool for repaying the budget deficit carries significant risks: limiting investment in national economy, part distraction budget funds on the social and economic needs of the country, excessive dependence of the domestic financial system on international financial resources etc. .

Rice. 1. Public debt of a number of countries in billions of US dollars (left axis) and in % of GDP (right axis),

Residents ■ Non-residents

Fig.2. Public debt holders in a number of countries, %, 2015 Source: compiled by the authors based on data from the European Statistical Commission and

International Monetary Fund

"Debt illnesses" of developed markets

What the excessive debt of the government in the context of national economic security can turn out to be for the state can be clearly seen in the typical example of Greece. It should be noted that the eurozone debt crisis began at the end of 2009, when the Greek government admitted that its debts had reached $300 billion, which at that time amounted to 113% of GDP. On

the current volume of the Greek public debt is 179% of GDP, which is equivalent to 321.33 billion euros. And the total external debt of the UK is already several times higher than its GDP!

Threats to national security in this situation are as follows.

The country's dependence on loans from foreign states and international financial organizations is growing: in the structure of Greece's public debt holders, the European Financial Stability Fund (an organization funded by eurozone member countries designed to fight the European debt crisis), the governments of the eurozone countries (primarily Germany, France, Estonia and Slovakia), ECB and IMF. Such dependence entitles the above structures to dictate the economic policy of the debtor country, which it must strictly observe in order to restructure its debt obligations. Failure to comply with the conditions of the IMF on the repayment of a tranche of 1.54 billion euros ultimately led to the default of Greece in 2015, political, economic and social instability in the country, and the intensification of a protracted crisis.

Due to the unpopular among the Greek population measures of hard budgetary restrictions, the country is experiencing a colossal unemployment rate (25%), an increase in social tension, the work of enterprises stops, which, in turn, leads to economic stagnation and a decrease in the standard of living of the population.

The government of the country is not motivated to achieve the best macroeconomic indicators, since creditors consider this as an opportunity to repay all obligations in in full, which can be detrimental to the already weakened economy of the state. In 2016, the social problems due to a significant reduction in pensions, social benefits, salaries of civil servants, a multiple increase in tuition fees, housing and communal services.

There is a weakening of the state's position in the international arena, a reduction in investment attractiveness, and, accordingly, cash flows to country. The long-term and short-term credit ratings of Greece were downgraded by the three largest international rating agencies(S&P, Fitch and Moody "s) from level B to level CCC. Government bonds with such a rating are recognized as "junk", the rate of return on them reaches about 25-30%, which the investor perceives as a high-risk security, while the income level for risk-free securities averages 6-10%.

Numerous creditors, primarily Germany, which, through injections of its own funds, allowed Greece to "keep afloat", literally forced the country's government to start selling country assets to service the public debt. We are talking about the largest telecommunications companies, regional network profitable airports and even islands. Taking into account the high degree of monopolization of the Greek economy, it is not difficult to imagine what a catastrophe for the sovereignty of the state could result in a large-scale privatization of assets by foreign public and corporate sectors.

Another telling example is one of the most indebted economies in the world - the United States of America. As of February 2016, the US government debt ceiling was about $19.013 trillion, of which $13.7 trillion is "public" debt. US government debt holders are individuals, foreign governments, American and foreign corporations. Moreover, the US Congressional Budget Office projects government borrowing to rise to $22.6 trillion and $29.3 trillion by 2020 and 2026, respectively. An analysis of the dynamics of the public debt limit (Fig. 3) shows that since the 1970s. this indicator was constantly growing regardless of which party (Republicans or Democrats) won the elections, there was always a mutual decision to raise the limit on the public debt. So, at the end of 2015, Barack Obama signed another budget plan, which implied an increase in the national debt ceiling to 19.6 trillion US dollars. Such an unprecedented increase in government spending and budget deficits have extremely negative consequences not only for the American economy itself, but for the entire world community, due to the colossal interdependence of economies in the era of globalization.

$19.6 trillion

70 72 "74 74 70 80 82 84 86 83 90 47 94 96 98 00 02 04 04 08 "10 "12 "14 "14 "18

Rice. 3. Dynamics of the US government debt limit, trillion dollars, 1970-2016 Source: http://www.visualcapitalist.com/

Previous crises of the "ceiling" of the US national debt have already led to quite serious consequences.

In 2012, analysts warned about the risks of the US government bond market, which was declared the greatest "soap bubble" in history and urged to focus on emerging markets when investing.

In 2013, there was a noticeable surge in volatility in the debt and stock markets: quotes for US 10-year bonds fell by 3.2% in total. The reason for the collapse was the Fed's statement about a possible reduction in the purchase of debt, as a result, investors began to withdraw

funds from government bonds, despite the increased rate on them. According to Bloomberg, in May 2013, investors who invested in US government bonds lost about $320 billion. The above negative points are accompanied by a political, economic and budgetary crisis, which manifests itself in the inability of the United States to significantly reduce the budget deficit (it must be given credit - such attempts have been made several times in recent years), to balance its income and expenses, in the constant increase in the "ceiling" of public debt.

Emerging markets crisis

If for developed countries more and more problems are “delivered” by sector debts government controlled, issues of public debt management, then among developing economies, the problems associated with total (or gross) debt (it is the sum of external debt of both the public and corporate sectors) come to the fore.

As noted above (see Fig. 2), when borrowing, the public sector of developing countries is characterized by an orientation towards the domestic, national market. In the course of analyzing the structure of the external debt of a number of countries (Fig. 4), we found that, despite the relatively low indicators of external debt in absolute terms, in a number of economies (BRICS, South Korea, Turkey, etc.) the corporate sector is clearly burdened debts in foreign currency, mainly in dollars, which carries certain risks associated with servicing such debt securities.

Rice. Fig. 4. Structure of external debt of a number of countries (left axis, %) and external debt in absolute terms (right axis, USD billion), 2015. Source: Compiled by the authors based on World Bank data.

According to the IMF report, presented in 2015, the total corporate debt of non-financial companies in developing countries, with the exception of China, in the period from 2004-2014. increased almost 4 times. At the same time, in 2016, in developing countries and countries with economies in transition, a slowdown in the rate of economic growth is expected, which in 2015 amounted to only 3.8%. This recession, which has affected many countries, among which it is necessary to single out China, the Russian Federation and Brazil, is caused by the following factors:

The decline in demand for natural resources in China, which has affected many developing countries in Latin America and Africa;

The fall in oil prices by more than 60%, which made it difficult for the economies of hydrocarbon exporting countries to grow;

Large-scale capital outflow (about $600 billion) caused by the progressive speculative activity that arose as a result of the desire of investors for more high yield securities in developing countries, while as a result of anti-crisis policy, interest rates in the most developed countries dropped almost to zero (Fig. 5)

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

USA -Eurozone RF ...... South Africa ...... China

Rice. 5. Dynamics of the key rate of the Central Banks of a number of countries, %, 2001-2016

Source: Compiled based on data from the International Monetary Fund and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development.

All of the above negative factors have many consequences in the form of a reduction in liquidity, an increase in the cost and servicing of borrowings, a depreciation of national currencies (as, for example, in Russia, Mexico, etc.), a decrease in the value of securities and other assets. This causes serious damage to the prospects for further growth of emerging economies. The stability of the situation and the prevention of a crisis in this group of countries are facilitated, in particular, by building up foreign exchange reserves (in most Asian countries, including China) and macroprudential measures to curb capital inflows.

The most vulnerable seems to be the corporate sector, which has increased its debt load through capital inflows. currently observed

the outflow negatively affects the stock prices of companies, increases the amount of financial leverage, as well as the likelihood of bankruptcy.

Thus, emerging markets should prepare for the consequences of global financial tightening. The main IMF recommendations on the ongoing tightening policy are as follows:

Mandatory monitoring of the most vulnerable and systemically important firms, banks and other sectors closely associated with them;

The expansion of monitoring requires the improvement of the system for collecting data on the finances of the corporate sector of the economy, including foreign currency loans;

Sound micro- and macro-prudential policies can limit the possible growth of foreign exchange financial risks and curb the excessive build-up of corporate borrowing;

Against the backdrop of normalization monetary policy in developed countries, emerging markets should prepare for possible increase bankruptcies and reforms of the debtor's insolvency determination process.

Features of the external debt of the Russian Federation

The external debt of the Russian Federation has been growing over the past decade until 2014 and increased by almost $600 billion (Fig. 6). Then there is a reverse trend, the total external debt began to be repaid at a record pace and as of January 1, 2016 amounted to only 515.8 billion US dollars, moreover, against the backdrop of a crisis situation in the economy and a depreciation of the ruble. According to a number of economists, the reason for such a sharp change in the trend of domestic borrowing lies in Western sanctions, which effectively closed the access of national companies to fairly cheap foreign loans. If it weren't for such drastic measures, it is possible that the total external debt would continue to grow at the same pace, and to a greater extent due to the growth of corporate loans of banks and firms to finance their activities. According to the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, external debt in 2016 will also be reduced by about $50 billion, payments on external debts will also be reduced by 2 times compared to 2015.

At first glance, it seems that the situation with Russian debt, both in relative and absolute terms, is quite stable and does not carry any significant systemic risks. However, one should not forget that, unlike, for example, Japan, whose total debt structure is dominated by internal borrowings, almost 90% of Russian external debt falls on the corporate sector of the economy, which carries a direct threat of default by enterprises and banks in a deteriorating macroeconomic environment, while a sovereign state cannot be declared bankrupt due to the nature of its structure. It should be noted that about 30% of corporate debt falls on such domestic "giants" as Gazprom, Rosneft, VTB, Sberbank, etc., which the state often helps with the fulfillment of debt obligations.

Rice. 6. Structure and dynamics of the external debt of the Russian Federation, % and million US dollars, 2005-2016

The National Security Concept notes that it is of paramount importance to conduct a balanced credit and financial policy aimed at gradually reducing Russia's dependence on external credit borrowings and strengthening its position in international financial markets. economic organizations.

Public debt is the total amount of all issued, but not yet repaid government loans and interest not paid on them. Depending on the placement market, currency and other characteristics, public debt is divided into external and internal.

The first includes loans from foreign states; international financial organizations; government loans denominated in foreign currency and placed on foreign markets.

The second includes loans from national banks; government loans denominated in national currency and placed on the national market. It consists of debts of past years and newly arisen debts. Domestic debt can also be defined as the sum of direct contractual obligations of government bodies to economic units of other sectors of the economy within the country, and to foreign creditors - as external debt.

Private debt is also singled out as the total debt of the non-state sector to owners of private securities. If the public debt today is about 30% of GDP, which is a safe limit, then the ratio of external debt of banks and enterprises to exports exceeds 70%. This level of specialists international economy already considered risky.

The quantitative assessment of the budget deficit, which also determines the amount of public debt, is associated with certain difficulties and is objectively complicated by a number of factors:

1) Usually, when estimating the amount of government spending, depreciation in public sector economy, which leads to an objective overestimation of the size of the budget deficit and public debt.
2) An important item of government spending is debt servicing, that is, the payment of interest on it and the gradual repayment of the principal amount of the debt (debt amortization).
3) When assessing the state budget deficit at the macro level, as a rule, the state of local budgets, which may have surpluses, is not taken into account. Often, local authorities purposefully distort statistical information about the state of local budgets in order to reduce tax deductions to the federal budget. This pattern is typical for almost all economies in which there has been a trend towards fiscal decentralization. As a result, when estimating the federal budget deficit, there is an overestimation.
4) Along with the measured (official) deficit of the state budget, both in developed and developing economies, there is a hidden deficit due to the quasi-fiscal (quasi-budgetary) activities of the Central Bank, as well as state-owned enterprises and commercial banks.

Quasi-fiscal operations include:

A) financing by state enterprises of excess employment and the payment of wages above market rates through bank loans or through the accumulation of mutual debt;
b) the accumulation in commercial banks, which separated from the former State Bank of the USSR at the initial stages of economic reforms, of a large portfolio of non-performing loans (overdue debt obligations of state enterprises, soft loans to households, firms, etc.) These loans are paid mainly at the expense of soft loans. Central Bank loans, and the portfolios of "bad debts" in developing economies are very significant;
c) financing of the Central Bank from measures to stabilize the exchange rate, interest-free and concessional loans to the government (for the purchase of wheat, rice, coffee, etc.) and refinancing loans from commercial banks to service non-performing loans, as well as refinancing of the Central Bank of agricultural, industrial and housing programs By preferential rates etc.

The hidden budget deficit underestimates the actual budget deficit and public debt, which is often done purposefully (for example, before elections), as well as within the framework of the government's "hard line" for an annually balanced budget.

The growth of the budget deficit and public debt affects the well-being of future generations. Shortfalls in funding can force the government to borrow from the financial market, which increases the demand for money and raises the interest rate. The latter, in turn, reduces the demand for money from private investors, and, consequently, leads to a fall in capital investments into production. As a result of the crowding out effect of private investment, new generations will have less productive capacity in the future. The picture will be different if government spending is directed not to the purchase of goods (for example, weapons), but to new investments in the economy. Then the production potential of the nation will not only not decrease, but increase.

For the economy of the country as a whole, external loans mean the need to give part of the profit in the form of interest, which further strengthens the financial system of the country that provided the loan, and relatively weakens the financial system of the country that took the loan. If the national economy is in the growth stage, there is enough money. But when the national economy moves into a crisis phase, the problem of the source of loans becomes key.

An economic recession or slowdown in growth leads to a fall in the rate of profit and to difficulties in paying off debt. The external creditor begins to "pull" liquidity and/or assets out of the country, which are often pledged. If the state intervenes in this process to save the national companies, it uses the cash reserves that were accumulated during the good market period, which still makes the residents poorer. If the creditor is internal, the country does not lose wealth - only the redistribution of property takes place.

A retrospective analysis shows that the causes of the external debt crisis in the 90s. the last century should include the following:

1) The deterioration of the world economy in the 80s, associated with an increase in real interest rates, a slowdown in economic growth and a decrease in commodity prices. The increase in real interest rates led to an increase in debt service ratios. The decline in commodity prices and the slowdown in GNP growth in countries that consume exports from debtor countries led to a decrease in exports and export earnings, which are the main source of debt repayment for debtor countries. As a result, debt burdens in debtor countries increased as export earnings fell and debt servicing rose at the same time.

2) Poor economic management in debtor countries. Budget deficits and overvaluation were common practice. national currency. The practice of overvaluing the exchange rate is accompanied by speculation, takes the form of a sharply growing import or "flight" of capital from the country, which worsens the state of the balance of payments, as external loans are used for other purposes (not for investment purposes related to the growth of aggregate income, but for financing " unviable" projects and speculative operations).

3) The erroneous macroeconomic policy was financed by excess loans from commercial banks. In the event of claims for new loans commercial banks provided them, ignoring the rapidly growing debt levels.

Such activity of loans was due to several reasons:

A) the oil shocks of 1973-74. and 1979-89 served as an instrument for redistributing a significant share of world income in favor of oil-exporting countries, where the short-term propensity to save is high. While the accumulation of savings for major investments into their own economies, these countries issued loans in liquid form, which served as a source of increased resources for international lending;

B) new financial resources were mainly provided in the form of additional loans to debtor countries, since the investment situation in the industrial countries was at that time very uncertain. In addition, the debtor countries limited foreign direct investment and widely used external loans at interest without the right to control property, which stimulated the growth of their external debt;

C) the largest commercial banks were actively looking for opportunities for such operations in order to stay ahead of competitors.

A more general reason for the periodic recurrence of the external debt crisis, which is not directly related to the world conjuncture of the 1980s, was the presence of strong incentives to refuse debt payments by sovereign debtor countries. Such a country can attract foreign loans until the amount of loans exceeds the amount of capital outflow to service the accumulated debt in the form of interest payments and amortization of its principal, and then announce the termination of payments. The practice of international settlements shows that payments are refused in cases where it is economically beneficial for the debtor country, and not only when the country does not have the resources to service the debt.

Russia came face to face with the danger of a default on external debt obligations and really felt the “debt loop” on itself. The state external debt was estimated at 151-155 billion dollars (some discrepancies in the estimates of debt and its components are associated with the peculiarities of the calculation methodology).

In international practice, the following mechanisms are used to reduce external debt:

1. Redemption of the debt - providing the debtor country with the opportunity to redeem its debt obligations on secondary market money papers. Redemption is carried out for cash at a discount from the nominal price in favor of the debtor. The foreign exchange needed for such transactions can be loaned or given "as a gift" to the country.

2. Exchange of debt for share capital(SWOP) - provision foreign banks the ability to exchange the debt obligations of a given country for the shares of its industrial corporations. At the same time, foreign non-bank organizations get the opportunity to repurchase these debt obligations on the secondary securities market at a discount, subject to financing of direct investments or the purchase of domestic financial assets from these funds. In all these cases, the foreign investor receives a "share" in the capital of this country, and its external debt is thus reduced.

3. Replacement of existing debt obligations with new obligations (in national or foreign currency). At the same time, the interest rate on new securities may be lower than on old ones, while maintaining the par value of bonds.

The poorest debtor countries are given the choice of one of the options for assistance from official creditors (members of the Paris Club):

1) partial cancellation of debt;
2) further extension of the terms of debt obligations;
3) lower interest rates for debt service.

Effective public debt management in both developed and developing economies cannot be carried out independently from other measures of the government's fiscal policy, as it is an integral part of common system public spending management.

The inflow of capital against the backdrop of an increase in external debt contributes to the elimination of the effect of crowding out private investment, the threat of which often accompanies tax reform stimulating type, aimed at reducing tax rates in combination with the expansion tax base. Public debt service expenditures are the least elastic item of the state budget expenditures. Since the elasticity of transfer payments is also very low, limiting the growth rates of other items of government spending and increasing their efficiency is the leading factor in reducing tensions in the fiscal sphere in Russia.

The elimination of quasi-fiscal operations and the inclusion of relevant accounts in the state budget system restores confidence in economic policy government and the Central Bank, especially if this is accompanied by the creation of adequate market economy institutional structures management of public expenditures - the budgetary administration and the treasury, whose functions also include the servicing of public debt.

Course work

State debt of Russia in modern conditions. The main tasks of economic security

Introduction

public debt management

Public debt arises during certain periods of the functioning of the state, when its costs begin to exceed revenues. The budget deficit is becoming a chronic phenomenon and its coverage is carried out through government borrowing.

One of the important tools used by the state to effective development its economy, is debt policy.

The economy of each individual country is a rather complex picture, very rich in pronounced individual features. But, despite all the variety of individual and local features that characterize financial systems selected countries, they have common, typical features, the existence of which is explained by the commonality of those basic conditions in which the economy of modern states develops. One of the most important typical characteristics is the presence in financial systems of all states - public debt. Everywhere public indebtedness generates huge annual expenditures, and everywhere financial policy is faced almost every year with the need to resort to a system of public borrowing in order to mobilize or sterilize money, which has become the second method of financing public expenditures after taxes.

The existence of public debt in the budgets of all states, the inevitable need for constant recourse to the system of public borrowing, of course, is one of the most characteristic facts in the history of world financial economy. Numerous historical surveys plentiful actual material prove that practically all states from ancient times resorted to the services and assistance of credit and that in their history there were too often such moments when the only way out of a predicament was to resort to credit in one form or another.

Public debt is as important a category in modern systems as tax system, capital market, etc. Its purpose is not only to attract funds from individual and institutional investors, but also to regulate money circulation, influence the processes taking place in the loan capital market, influence budget process and overall impact on the entire economic process.

In the economic literature, an active discussion of the issue of the nature of public debt and its impact on the development of the economy does not stop, especially when it comes to crisis periods of development.

economic science gives a multifaceted view of the public debt.

IN Russian legislation also formulated the concept of public debt. In Art. 97 of the Budget Code of the Russian Federation, it is determined that the state debt of the Russian Federation includes debt obligations of the Russian Federation to individuals and legal entities of the Russian Federation, constituent entities of the Russian Federation, municipalities, foreign states, international financial organizations, other subjects of international law, foreign individuals and legal entities arising as a result of state borrowings of the Russian Federation, as well as debt obligations under state guarantees provided by the Russian Federation, and debt obligations arising as a result of the adoption of legislative acts of the Russian Federation on the attribution to public debt of debt obligations of third parties that arose before the entry into force of the Budget Code .

The idea of government debt as a public burden arises because government debt is, after all, taxpayer debt. However, on the basis of this approach, the public debt as a problem does not exist, with the exception of that part of it that belongs to foreigners, since all the citizens of the state, taken together, are both holders of the public debt and debtors on it.

Therefore, it is obvious that the growth of domestic debt is less dangerous for the national economy than the growth of its external debt. There is no leakage of goods and services when domestic debt is repaid, but there are certain changes in economic life, the consequences of which can be very significant.

For Russia, due to the prevailing economic situation issues related to the use of public domestic debt as an instrument of the state's macroeconomic policy are of great importance.

This problem has become particularly acute due to financial crisis, which had a negative impact on the economy as a whole, and led to the refusal of the government to fulfill its obligations on the debt and the forced restructuring of this debt. The use of public domestic debt as a tool to influence economic processes in the conditions of reforms allowed Russian government to create a civilized market for government debt, but its formation and development was characterized by a number of features that had a negative impact on the Russian economy.

The main objectives of this course work are: disclosure of the concept of the state internal debt of the Russian Federation, consideration of the structure of debt and its types, analysis of the state of the state internal debt at the present time, as well as consideration of public debt management methods, the impact of debt on the country's economy.

1. Public debt

1.1 The concept of public debt

Public debt - the total deficit of the state budget for a certain period.

There are several definitions of public debt in explanatory dictionaries:

1.The amount of government debt to external and internal creditors. Distinguish between external public debt and domestic public debt. Public debt is made up of the debt of the central government, regional and local governments, government organizations, enterprises.

2.The amount of debt on issued and outstanding government loans (including interest accrued on them); depending on the placement market of the currency, loan and other characteristics, it is divided into internal and external, depending on the maturity - capital and current.

Thus, the public debt is the result of monetary relations which arise, in turn, with the movement of temporarily free financial resources from the national private sector or from abroad to the state budget on the basis of borrowing principles. Public debt is the result of monetary relations in which the state acts as a borrower, and the entire amount of borrowed capital is the amount of public debt.

It is necessary to distinguish between foreign debt, on the one hand, and public debt, on the other. External debt is what a country has borrowed from abroad to cover a balance of payments deficit. Public debt is what the government has borrowed to cover a deficit in the balance of payments. That part which the state borrows abroad will thus enter into both public and foreign debt. The movement of the balance of payments determines the total foreign debt. Public debt is determined by the dynamics of the budget deficit. In order for the public debt to decrease, the budget must have a positive balance. If the government budget has a deficit, the government debt is increased to cover this deficit by issuing new loans, basically replacing short-term liabilities with longer-term securities or liabilities that mature with new bonds—that is, refinance the government debt.

Most of the public debt usually originates within the country. On fig. 1 shows the process of growth of public debt, which is observed in almost all countries of the world.

Rice. 1. The volume of domestic public debt to GDP in the countries of the world in 2010 according to the CIA and the IMF, in %

1.2 Forms of public debt

From the above definitions, it is obvious that public debt is the total debt of the state to its creditors. Depending on the origin of creditors, public debt is divided into internal and external.

Government debt obligations of the Russian Federation may exist in the form of:

· credit agreements and contracts concluded on behalf of the Russian Federation, as a borrower, with credit institutions, foreign states and international financial organizations;

· government loans made by issuing securities on behalf of the Russian Federation;

· contracts and agreements on the receipt by the Russian Federation of budget loans from the budgets of other levels of the budget system of the Russian Federation;

· agreements on the provision of state guarantees by the Russian Federation;

· agreements and contracts, including international ones, concluded on behalf of the Russian Federation, on the prolongation and restructuring of the debt obligations of the Russian Federation of previous years.

The debt obligations of the Russian Federation may be short-term (up to one year), medium-term (over one year to five years) and long-term (over five years and up to 30 years). There are restrictions on the maturity of debt obligations, which cannot exceed 30 years, and it is also not allowed to change the conditions of a state loan put into circulation, including the terms of payment and the amount of interest payments, the maturity period.

Public debt can be classified in several ways. First of all, in Russian legislation, public debt is divided into internal and external. According to Art. 6 of the Budget Code of the Russian Federation, internal public debt are debt obligations arising in foreign currency, with the exception of obligations of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation and municipalities to the Russian Federation, arising in foreign currency as part of the use of targeted foreign loans (borrowings)

The same article provides the concept of the state external debt of Russia, according to which external debt is obligations arising in foreign currency, with the exception of obligations of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation and municipalities to the Russian Federation, arising in foreign currency as part of the use of targeted foreign loans (borrowings)

Thus, two different features are included in the classification of government borrowings into internal and external.

In the first case, this is the currency in which borrowings are expressed, in the second, the sphere of borrowings. As a result of this uncertainty, it may be difficult to classify debt. An example is a domestic foreign currency loan, which was denominated in US dollars, but was placed among residents. Thus, it satisfies both criteria at once, therefore it was not included in either internal or external debt, but was taken into account separately until 1997.

The classification of debt into internal and external should still be based only on the sign of the sphere of borrowing - the national or external financial market. This approach is more preferable and clear in the context of the expansion of foreign economic activity and the convertibility of the national currency. In this regard, we note that the interpretation of internal and external debt, given in the textbook "Economic Theory" edited by A. II, is quite fair. Dobrynina, L.S. Tarasevich. So, in this work it is argued that “the external public debt is the debt foreign countries, organizations and individuals”, and domestic debt is formed as a result of borrowing among residents.

The next classification is the division of debt into capital and current. The entire amount of accepted and outstanding government obligations, including interest payments, is capital debt. Upcoming expenses on the payment of income to creditors on all debt obligations of the state and on the repayment of obligations that have come due, form current debt.

The next feature of the classification is the existing levels of government. According to this feature, the state debt of the Russian Federation and the debt of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation are distinguished.

Debts issued by local governments form the municipal debt.

It should be noted that in world practice the term "public debt" in its commonly used meaning does not include the entire public sector: the finances of states and municipalities are usually omitted. These two categories, government debt and local government debt should be considered separately. Indeed, if the federal government worked out a fiscal year with a budget deficit, then local budgets may have a positive balance for the same period. Therefore, when we talk about public debt, we mean government debt.

First, public debt, from a macroeconomic point of view, has only a monetary aspect. The size of the public debt indicates how much of the future, not yet received cash income of the state has already been spent by it.

Secondly, public debt is permanent in nature, since government bonds of previous issues have the opportunity to be refinanced by issuing new bonds. Figuratively speaking, "old" debt can be refinanced by creating "new" debt.

Thirdly, the material carrier of this debt (but not the entire debt) are government bonds, which are a specific form of fictitious capital.

The main factor in the formation of public debt is the state budget deficit, i.e. excess of government spending over revenue. Public debt is the third means of financing government spending. The first two are taxation and the issuance of money.

2. Domestic public debt of the Russian Federation

.1 The essence of the public debt of the Russian Federation

At its core, public domestic debt is a collection of credit and financial relations arising in connection with the movement of capital from the national private sector to the state budget on the basis of their borrowing.

Domestic sources of financing are formed through the issuance of profitable government bonds, which are placed and freely traded on stock market, and after a certain period are repaid by the state. The main creditors of domestic debt are: the population, corporations, banks, other financial and credit institutions.

The advantage of borrowing is that the money to cover the budget deficit is borrowed in the market and there is no increase in the money supply. This process in aggregate forms the domestic public debt of the Russian Federation, the main legal provisions which are enshrined in the Budget Code Chapter 14 "State and municipal debt"

Domestic public debt, in accordance with the Budget Code, refers to obligations denominated in national currency, while, foreign currency, conditional monetary units and precious metals can only be specified as a relevant clause, but they must be paid in Russian currency.

The volume of the state internal debt of the Russian Federation includes:

) the nominal amount of debt on government securities of the Russian Federation, obligations for which are denominated in the currency of the Russian Federation;

) the amount of the principal debt on loans received by the Russian Federation and obligations for which are expressed in the currency of the Russian Federation;

) the amount of principal debt on budget loans received by the Russian Federation;

) the volume of obligations under state guarantees denominated in the currency of the Russian Federation;

) the volume of other, except for the above, debt obligations of the Russian Federation, the payment of which in the currency of the Russian Federation is provided for by other federal laws.

Table 1

2.2 Composition of the domestic public debt of the Russian Federation

The internal debt of the Russian Federation forms a relatively small number of instruments, consisting of four types of government bonds. At present, the main part in its structure is OFZ-AD. This is a result of the improvement in the macroeconomic environment and macroeconomic indicators in the pre-crisis period, which allowed the government to raise funds at lower yields.

The types of bonds that make up domestic debt are constantly changing and have different life cycle, which usually lasts from 7 to 13 years. Compared to the leading countries, the market for public debt instruments remains underdeveloped. This applies in particular to the diversification of the securities used.

Almost forty percent of government securities issued by the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation (totaling about 1.5 trillion rubles) are held by commercial banks. Of this amount, the five largest banks by assets account for more than 65% of government bonds.

The underdevelopment of domestic borrowing instruments is also due to the factor of citizens' psychological distrust of government securities. Such mistrust is due, first of all, to the historical peculiarities of the development of the economic system of the state, when, for example, participation in internal state loans was clearly coercive.

The formed structure of holders of government securities is explained by their relatively low profitability. According to the estimates of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation in 2010-2012. it is possible to increase the yield on ruble instruments up to 9.5-10.5% (for medium- and long-term instruments - up to 12-13%, and 13-14%, respectively) if:

depreciation of the ruble;

change in the volume of foreign exchange reserves;

oil price adjustment;

growth of interest rates in the debt market abroad.

The low yield of government securities, which currently exists, gives their issuer some advantages. In particular, the relatively low cost of debt service. According to preliminary official data, the cost of servicing the public debt in 2009 amounted to 150 billion rubles, or 0.9% of GDP. However, in 2010-2012 a noticeable increase in these expenditures is planned, which may reach 2% of GDP in 2012.

In order to increase the capitalization of banks in the coming years, it is planned to use government securities of the Russian Federation by exchanging OFZ for preferred shares of banks. The volume of issuance of government bonds for exchange, according to the Ministry of Finance, can range from 150 billion rubles. up to 210 billion rubles The issue of government bonds was carried out from July 21, 2009 to December 31, 2010 with a maturity date no later than the end of 2019 (Fig. 2).

The government has the right to carry out internal borrowings in excess (established by the federal law on the federal budget for the next financial year) of the maximum amount of state internal debt instead of external borrowings, if this reduces the cost of servicing the state debt within the volume established by the federal law on the federal budget for the next financial year state debt and other procedure for restructuring is not provided for by the federal law on the federal budget for the next financial year.

Depending on the maturity and volume of obligations, there are:

capital public debt;

current public debt.

Under the capital public debt is understood the entire amount of issued and outstanding debt obligations of the state, including accrued interest on these obligations.

Under the current public debt understand the costs of paying income to creditors on all debt obligations of the state and the repayment of obligations that are due.

The debt obligations of the Russian Federation may exist in the form of:

loan agreements and contracts concluded on behalf of the Russian Federation as a borrower with credit institutions;

government loans made by issuing securities on behalf of the Russian Federation;

contracts and agreements on the receipt by the Russian Federation of budget loans from the budgets of other levels of the budgetary system of the Russian Federation;

agreements on the provision of state guarantees by the Russian Federation.

The structure of Russia's current domestic debt includes the following securities:

government short-term bonds (GKO) with maturities of 3, 6 and 12 months. Issued on a paperless basis in the form of records on depo accounts. The bonds have no coupons. Placed at auctions at a discount from face value. The first auction for the placement of three-month GKOs was held in May 1993 at the Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange (MICEX);

federal loan bonds with a variable coupon (OFZ-PK) began to be issued in 1995, and after the 1998 crisis, the issue was discontinued. The coupon was paid semi-annually. The value of the coupon rate changed and was determined by the average weighted yield on GKO over the last 4 sessions (trades);

federal loan bonds with a constant coupon income (OFZ-PD). They have a maturity of 3 years and a zero coupon; may be used in accordance with the established procedure for operations to pay off arrears in taxes to the federal budget, including fines and penalties, formed as of July 1, 1998, as well as to pay for participation in authorized capital credit organizations;

federal loan bonds with a fixed coupon income (OFZ-FK);

federal loan bonds with debt amortization, i.e. there is a periodic repayment of the principal amount of the debt (OFZ-AD);

government savings bonds with a fixed interest rate (GSO-FIB), where a fixed interest rate is determined for each coupon period;

government savings bonds with a constant interest rate (GSO-PPP), where a constant interest rate is determined for all coupon periods;

bonds of the state non-market loan (OGNZ); issued in non-documentary form; income is paid as a percentage of the nominal value, which is established by the Ministry of Finance when issuing bonds, but at least once a year;

city internal loan bonds (OGVZ) - issued by the appropriate level of executive power with fixing the terms of issue;

bonds of the Russian domestic winning loan (ORVVZ);

bonds of internal bonded loans of the Russian Federation (OVOZ);

bonds of the state savings loan (OGSS) with a maturity of 1 year. Issue volume - 10 trillion. rub. - divided into tranches of 1 trillion. rub. Denomination - 100 and 500 thousand rubles. Issued in blank form to bearer with a set of four coupons paid quarterly. The coupon size is determined at the latest officially announced OFZ-PK coupon rate plus a premium set by the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation.

The implementation of anti-crisis measures and the budget deficit will probably contribute to a noticeable increase in the volume of domestic and external debt of the Russian Federation in the medium term, as well as the diversification of its instruments.

As a result, the absolute and relative indicators of public debt servicing costs may increase. With the deterioration of the external economic situation and unfavorable domestic economic factors, a significant increase in the rate of servicing domestic and external debt is possible, which in the future may increase the burden on the budget of the Russian Federation.

It is necessary to increase the efficiency of generating and maintaining demand for instruments of the state internal debt of the Russian Federation. It is also important that the placement of new securities on the market does not crowd out financial resources from other segments of the economy, creating additional problems there.

The evolutionary dynamics of domestic public debt, depicted in Figure 3, demonstrates the destructive management of domestic debt in the period 1995-1998, when it began to increase at a rapid pace, reaching enormous proportions.

Rice. 3. Dynamics and structure of the internal debt of the Russian Federation in 1993-2012, billion rubles .

Sharp changes in the dynamics of the volume of domestic debt occurred in the period from 2008 to 2011, which is associated with the global financial and economic crisis. During this period, the Russian Government had to take a number of unscheduled measures related to additional support for the economy as a matter of priority. For these purposes, it was decided to use the funds of the "financial airbag" - funds Reserve Fund and the National Welfare Fund. However, in the long term, measures were taken to diversify the sources of financial resources, one of which is domestic debt. During this period, the volume of issuance of federal loan bonds with a fixed coupon income sharply increases, and the volumes of issuance of other types of debt securities also remain. At the same time, 2011 ended successfully, it can be stated. The total volume of domestic public debt of our country as of January 1, 2012 amounted to 3.5 trillion. rub., external debt - 35.8 billion dollars or about 1 trillion. rub. (see Fig. 4).

Rice. 4. Dynamics of the volume of internal and external debt of the Russian Federation in 1993-2011, billion rubles.

Such dynamics is explained by the positive situation in the commodity markets, which allowed our country to receive additional income from the sale of energy resources, minimizing the increase in the volume of debt, both external and internal.

In general, the dynamics of debt volumes is determined by the Ministry of Finance in the main directions of the debt policy for 2012-2014. According to this document, an increase in the volume of external liabilities by 1.6 times from 1.2 trillion. rub. at the end of 2011 to 1.9 trillion. rub. by 2014, as well as domestic - by 2.8 times, reaching 9.9 trillion. rub. Thus, the public debt in the next three years will increase from 11.2% of GDP in 2011 to 17.0% of GDP in 2014.

The composition of the total public debt in countries with market economy typically includes central government debt (federal debt), local government debt ( communal debt), state corporations and enterprises and other debts classified by the legislation of the country as public debt. Their ratio is determined by the characteristics of the economic and historical development each country, but, as a rule, most of the domestic debt is indebtedness of the central government.

A qualitative analysis of public debt allows us to identify three of its constituent elements.

The first one is financial indebtedness, which means monetary obligations states arising from government loans loan funds(government securities, loans of Central banks, etc.) intended to finance the state budget expenditures. This type debt is widespread both in developed market countries and in countries with economies in transition, and it is this type of debt that determines to a greater extent the size of domestic public debt.

The second type of state debt is administrative debt, which includes monetary obligations that are closely related to the implementation of the current budget policy. This type of debt includes, first of all, arrears in payments in the public sector (for example, wage arrears in state-owned enterprises and institutions). In other words, these are funds for which expenditure items have already been approved in the budget, but payments on them have not been made due to problems that have arisen. This type of debt is held until it is paid off in the new financial year and is usually of a short-term nature. This type of debt is more typical for countries with economies in transition, where there are huge problems with replenishing the revenue side of the budget, primarily related to the general economic crisis in the country (fall in production, stagnation, high inflation, inefficient taxation system). For example, it was in Russia in the 1990s, when wage arrears to employees of budgetary enterprises and organizations amounted to more than 47 trillion. rub., or about 2% of GDP. At the same time, as a rule, the amount of overdue payments of this kind from the state treasury was not taken into account as a component of the public debt and budget deficit.

The third type of public debt is a possible debt obligations arising from the provision government bodies guarantees and guarantees in the framework of promoting certain activities of public and private enterprises. The allocation of budgetary funds for such purposes is the most fruitful and meets the state economic interests. This type of public debt is widespread in developed countries. For countries with developing economies, this type of debt seems to be the most promising in terms of industrial recovery of the economy.

According to the Budget Code, the volume of the state internal debt of the Russian Federation includes:

· the nominal amount of debt on government securities of the Russian Federation, obligations for which are denominated in the currency of the Russian Federation;

· the amount of the principal debt on loans received by the Russian Federation and obligations for which are expressed in the currency of the Russian Federation;

· the amount of principal debt on budget loans received by the Russian Federation;

· the volume of obligations under state guarantees denominated in the currency of the Russian Federation;

· the amount of other (except for the specified) debt obligations of the Russian Federation, the payment of which in the currency of the Russian Federation is provided for by federal laws prior to the entry into force of this Code.

The size and structure of the state internal debt are presented in the program of state internal borrowings of the Russian Federation, subjects of the Federation and municipalities. The program is one of the documents submitted simultaneously with the draft budget for the next financial year.

Limits on domestic debt are approved by the budget law for the corresponding financial year. The limit may be exceeded by the Russian government if this reduces the cost of servicing the public debt. The budget law also approves the ceiling borrowed money allocated by Russia, subjects of the Federation or municipalities to finance the budget of the corresponding level.

3. Methods of managing public domestic debt

In order to prevent the consequences of the growth of domestic debt for the country from becoming too severe, the government must take certain measures to manage the debt. The costs of placement, payment of income and repayment of debt obligations of the Russian Federation are carried out at the expense of the federal budget. Servicing of the state internal debt of the Russian Federation is carried out by the Bank of Russia and its institutions, by carrying out operations for the placement of debt obligations of the Russian Federation, their repayment and payment of income in the form of interest on them or in another form. The Bank of Russia performs the functions of a general agent (agent) for servicing the state internal debt free of charge.

Payment for the services of agents for the placement and servicing of the public debt is carried out within the limits approved by the Government of the Russian Federation, at the expense of federal budget funds allocated for servicing the public debt. Servicing of the state internal debt of the constituent entity of the Russian Federation, municipal debt is carried out in accordance with federal laws, laws of the constituent entity of the Russian Federation and legal acts local authorities.

Thus, the volume of the public debt of the Russian Federation in 2010 increased by 40.2% compared to 2009, by the end of 2012 it will more than double and amount to 15.4% of GDP. The volume of public domestic debt increased in 2010 compared to 2009 by 31.2%, by the end of 2012 it will increase 1.7 times and amount to 8.1% of GDP.

With the growth of public debt, the federal budget expenditures for servicing it (interest expenses) increase, in 2010 they were 1.5 times higher than in 2009, in 2012 - 2.8 times.

In 2012, budget allocations for servicing the state internal debt of the Russian Federation will increase by 121,396.7 million rubles compared to 2011 and amount to 314,096.7 million rubles, which is due to the need to ensure financing of the federal budget deficit through the implementation of state internal borrowings and the growth of the absolute value of the state internal debt of the Russian Federation. In 2013-2014, these budget allocations are planned in the amount of 395,766.8 million rubles and 479,420.1 million rubles, respectively.

The calculation of interest payments on the state internal debt of the Russian Federation was made on the basis of:

· the expected volume of the state internal debt of the Russian Federation on securities as of January 1, 2012 in the amount of 3,655,273.1 million rubles and the projected issue of government securities denominated in the currency of the Russian Federation in 2012 in the amount of 1,843,716.2 million rubles, in 2013 - 1,839,600.0 million rubles and in 2014 - 1,919,400.0 million rubles at nominal value;

· planned yield in 2012-2014 on short-term instruments up to 4.5 - 5.5% and on medium-term instruments up to 6.0 - 7.5% and long-term instruments up to 7.5 - 8.5%.

In 2012-2014, the bulk of budget allocations for servicing the state domestic debt will fall on federal loan bonds with debt amortization (OFZ-AD) and federal loan bonds with a constant coupon income (OFZ-PD). In 2012, 61,557.6 million rubles will be allocated for servicing OFZ-AD, in 2013 - 58,153.9 million rubles, in 2014 - 57,202.1 million rubles. Budget allocations for OFZ-PD servicing will amount to 200,520.5 million rubles in 2012, 281,473.9 million rubles in 2013, and 371,112.6 million rubles in 2014.

The main ways to repay the domestic public debt can be, firstly, inflation, secondly, the introduction of special taxes and, thirdly, budget sequestration. If the government finances the budget deficit by issuing money, then this leads to inflation. It devalues nominal domestic debt and interest payments by him. What's more, high inflation rates can even make interest rates on government securities negative. However, such a course of events can lead to hyperinflation, which is devastating to the country's economy. It should also be taken into account that a significant share of public debt is now represented by short-term government securities, and in the context of inflation, with each new issue of government securities, the rate of return will increase. Securities with a floating interest rate, which changes with a change in the lending interest rate or the discount rate, have also become widespread. This limits the scope for inflation.

Introduction of special taxes or increase tax rates will allow in the short term to increase budget revenues, and hence reduce public debt. In the long term, this can lead to a reduction in production, a narrowing of the tax base and, consequently, to a decrease in tax revenues to the treasury. In some cases, it is advisable to resort to reducing public spending through sequestration. Sequestration - a proportional reduction in costs (by 5 or 10.15%, etc.) monthly for almost all budget items until the end of the current fiscal year. Sequestration is not subject to protected articles, the composition of which is determined higher authorities authorities. There are also items that cannot be sequestered (payment of interest on the public debt, etc.). For example, in the USA all federal spending are divided into two parts - direct (mandatory) and discretionary. Direct costs include those expenses that are regulated by permanent legislation (unemployment benefits, medical care programs, etc.). Discretionary - expenses that depend on the specific state of affairs in the economy and are annually reviewed and approved by the US Congress. According to these articles, Congress sets an annual spending limit. If actual expenditures began to exceed the limits, then the sequestration mechanism came into effect, which made it possible to reduce the budget deficit and public debt.

In the structure of debt repayment, a relatively flat curve develops after 2022. The part related to 2020-2030 is the portfolio of the Central Bank, which was re-registered in OFZ. The Ministry of Finance practically does not allow payment peaks and believes that until 2010 the amount of repayment will not exceed 100-110 billion rubles. Under the conditions of such budget execution, the annual repayment is significantly less than the monthly receipt of income to the federal budget. This makes it possible to speak about the absence credit risks.

The schedule of repayment of the state internal debt of the Russian Federation by years

The problem of public debt servicing is the key to macroeconomic stabilization in the country. The state of the federal budget, the stability of the national currency, the level of interest rates, inflation, and the investment climate depend on its decision. In addition, taking into account the attempts of our international creditors to use the debt problem for political pressure on Russia, the competent settlement of the state debt becomes a factor of national security and a condition for conducting an independent foreign, and indeed domestic policy.

Conclusion

Public debt can be viewed as a relationship arising from the attraction and use of additional centralized state monetary funds, i.e. financial relations representing economic ties, interactions, relations in monetary form

With the help of public debt, the limited tax revenues to the state budget are overcome, the growth of the cash supply is limited, and government loans play a significant role in ensuring budget balance.

The relationship between debt and the economy is complex and ambiguous. There is no single point of view on the nature of the impact of debt on the economy. The views of economists on this problem are completely different.

Constantly growing budget expenditures do not correspond to the rate of income growth, which inevitably leads to the formation of a budget deficit. In this case, the main and, perhaps, the only way to finance the budget deficit is public debt.

Domestic public debt plays a fairly significant role in the economy of all states, and its share in the total amount of public debt can be judged on economic situation states. For example, in developed market states domestic debt accounts for the bulk of all public debt, while, as in most developing countries and countries with economies in transition, due to the low level of domestic savings, the bulk of public debt falls on external debt.

At the same time, increased use of debt policy instruments for domestic borrowing could help create more flexible mechanisms to address actual problems in various areas - budgetary, monetary, social, etc. At the same time, domestic debt policy should be balanced and be the subject of constant monitoring.

Public domestic debt is a rather complex phenomenon and due to a number of reasons operating in the specific situation of a particular state, its impact on the country's economy receives an individual coloring. In contrast to the practice of developed market countries, where the public domestic debt acts as an additional source of budget revenues, the formation and growth of the Russian public domestic debt is mainly the result of a sharp reduction in the tax base due to the strongest drop in the volume of production in the country and the growing tension in the public sector. The unlimited growth of the state domestic debt and the expenditure budget item for servicing it, in turn, has a negative impact on the country's economy.

Thus, internal public debt should be understood as the internal debt of the state to organizations, enterprises and the population, formed in connection with the attraction of their funds to fulfill government programs and orders, government bonds and other government securities, as well as due to the presence of deposits of the population in state banks expressed in the currency of the Russian Federation.

In this regard, it is important to determine the areas in which it is possible to attract domestic borrowing from the state to invest in the country's capital. It is necessary to create new forms of attracting internal loans to finance the renewal and increase of state capital. It is necessary to develop an integrated approach to solving the problems of the country's socio-economic development by increasing the scale of the use of state property.

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