The demographic development of the country. World demographic development

30.11.2019

The first doubling occurred in 1500 years (the beginning of our era - 1500), the second in 300 years (1500-1800), the third in 120 years (1800-1920), the fourth in 50 years (1920- 1970), the fourth in 48 years (1970-2018)

The population depends on the basic conditions for the long-term existence of populations (biological, ethological, environmental). World population growth has not been smooth. In some countries and regions it accelerated, in others it remained unchanged or declined, which was determined by a number of the above reasons. So, the plague in 1348-1377. in Europe led to a population decline of at least 40%, and demographic recovery took over a hundred years.

The main aspects of demographic development. Demographic development consists of long periods of evolution and relatively brief qualitative shifts or periods of demographic transition and demographic revolutions. A demographic transition is understood as a change in the types of population reproduction. It coincides with the transformation of the pre-industrial system of productive forces into the industrial one. The demographic revolution is an integral part of the demographic transition.

The term demographic revolution, or population explosion, means unprecedented high rates natural growth population that exceeds the growth rate of previous decades. According to some estimates, annual growth of 2% and above refers to fast growth, in which the population doubles every 35 years, moderate - every 50 years, slow - about every 200 years.

The population explosion is a consequence and manifestation of the process of modernization of the traditional type of population reproduction, during which the population balance is maintained due to the extremely high birth rate and mortality. A characteristic feature of this order is the rapid change of generations that barely live up to 40 years. The transformation of the traditional type of natural reproduction began with a decrease in mortality. By the middle of the 20th century humanity has come to have effective and relatively cheap means of combating mass diseases, which has led to a sharp decrease in mortality.

The process of reducing mortality was forced in developing countries. For the second half of the XX century. the mortality rate there decreased by 2.8 times: from 24.2 in 1950-1955. up to 8.6 people per thousand inhabitants in 1995-2000 The population growth in Asia, Africa and Latin America has become explosive. The power of the ongoing population explosion surpasses the previously known. Due to the fact that the current extremely high growth rate of the world population is to a decisive extent determined by the rate of its increase in developing countries, the population explosion of these countries has turned into a world one. For 1950-1970 population growth increased from 2.0 to 2.5% on average per year, then in 1995-2000. it dropped to 1.6% (tab. 13.1).

Table 13.1

Pace population growth, %

Population growth in developing countries in the second half of the 90s was four times higher than in industrialized countries (1.6 and 0.4).

The highest population growth rates are observed in the countries of the Middle East and Africa (2.2% in 1950-1955 and 2.4% in 1995-2000). In tropical Africa, the preservation of demographic stereotypes is facilitated by objective factors associated with high child mortality, the spread of infertility, and persisting polygamy. High population growth rates persist in South America.

The population explosion is not a new phenomenon in demographic history. IN western countries The highest population growth rates were in 1760-1820, when the US population increased by almost 6 times, Britain - by 1.8, France - 1.2, Germany - 1.4, Italy - 1.1 times. No less impressive changes in the population of this group of countries occurred in the years 1820-1860, when the US population increased by more than three times, Britain - by 1.4, Germany - by almost 1.5 times. The birth rate in now industrialized countries was 3.78% in 1820, in 1901 it dropped to 3.01%.

The demographic transition in the industrialized countries of the West ended in the 50s. Improved living conditions have led to an increase in life expectancy, a decrease in the birth rate and an increase in the proportion of older people. According to the medium version, it is expected that starting from 2010-2015. in this subsystem of the world economy, the gross birth rate will be inferior to the mortality rate.

In the demographic transition, or change in the types of population reproduction, four phases can be distinguished, which are determined by the movement of birth and death rates. So, the fourth phase of the current demographic transition in the world provides for the convergence of birth and death rates due to the growth of the latter. In this regard, growth cessation and stabilization of the world population by the end of this century are expected.

The rationality of the phases of population reproduction is largely determined by the socio-economic organization of society. Restructuring of the type of reproduction depends not only on reducing mortality, but also on socio-economic transformations. The type of birth rate is largely determined by the type of family and the nature of economic relations in it. In a backward agrarian economy, large families predominate, where relatives are united by common economic activities and responsibilities, where the flows of goods are directed from younger ages to older ones. These relationships determine economic feasibility maximizing fertility.

IN industrial society the family loses its function economically, the flow of goods in it changes direction, which determines the economic feasibility of childlessness. Therefore, in many developing countries, improving health and well-being, which can lead to a significant increase in life expectancy and lower child mortality, will play a more important role in reducing population growth rates and the overall growth rate than in Western countries, where the reproduction rate has fallen to how modern means of preventing and terminating pregnancy have spread.

Although the population growth rate is declining, the absolute growth in the number of people on the planet increased until the beginning of the 90s (1950-1955 - 47 million, 1985-1990 - 86 million, 1995-2000 - 77.7 million people in year). At the end of the last century, the most significant population growth occurred. Over 12 years (1987-1999), it increased by 1 billion and approached b billion people.

Placement of the population. Major population gains are provided by developing countries. In the first half of the 50s they accounted for 79%, and in the second half of the 90s - 97% of the increase in world population. More than half (60%) of population growth comes from 10 countries. India alone accounts for 20% of global population growth. These processes led to the redistribution of the population between the various subsystems of the world economy. If in 1950 about 2/3 of the population lived in developing countries, in 2000 - 80%, then in 2025 their share is expected to increase further to 84% (Table 13.2).

Table 13.2

Distribution of the world population by subsystems

and regions (million people and%)

The increase in the share of developing countries was mainly due to Africa and India. The share of industrialized countries of the West decreased from 32 to 19.6%. Such shifts strengthened the differentiation in the distribution of population and productive forces. Developing countries account for 80% of the population and only about 20% of VMP (37% of the purchasing power of currencies). In this subsystem of the world economy, the largest countries in the country are located (over 100 million people). These include China, India, Indonesia, Brazil, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nigeria. The share of industrialized countries in the global population is declining. Natural growth is very low. IN North America, Western Europe and Japan, it is carried out on a narrowed basis (gross reproduction rate of less than 2.0%). A similar picture can be observed in Eastern European countries. This poses a threat of depopulation or a demographic crisis in these areas. IN Russian Federation the demographic situation in the 90s was characterized as crisis. A change in the population, a decrease in the share of a country, or a subsystem in the global population changes the potential of countries in the world economy.

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Belarusian State University

Faculty of International Relations

Independent work

World demographic development

1st year students of the 14th group

offices "Customs"

Kurlovich Anna Alexandrovna

supervisor

associate Professor

economic sciences

Malashenkova O.F.

Minsk, 2012

Introduction

3. Demographic policy

Conclusion

Introduction

Every year, the interest of the economic community in the demographic development of the world is increasing. Reproduction of the population, its polo age structure, quality and life expectancy, skill level work force, migration and its socio-economic consequences attract the attention of specialists, politicians and society. The reason for the increased interest is the uneven demographic development of the world. Indeed, the viability, as well as the development of the state, directly depends on the sustainability of demographic development.

Social, economic as well as cultural factors have a major impact on population growth. Although at present, these factors are more likely negative than positive. The most striking example are European countries that experience difficulties in reproducing the population. There is a tendency towards an increase in mortality and a decrease in fertility. Therefore, under the influence of these factors, it is depopulation that is the modern picture of the development of world demography.

The purpose of the work is to explore the demographic development of the world.

1. The demographic development of the world

Reproduction - the process of generational change as a result natural movement population. The number and reproduction of the population is characterized by many demographic indicators, but the main ones are the birth rate, mortality rate and natural increase. These values \u200b\u200bare expressed in ppm (‰).

Every year the population is growing rapidly. Between 1960 and 2011, the number more than doubled (from 3 to 7 billion people). It is not difficult to notice that throughout the entire historical period, the gaps between population increases by half are rapidly decreasing. The first doubling of the population occurred in 1500 years (the beginning of our era - 1500), the next after 300 (1500-1800), the third in 120 years (1800-1920), and the fourth in 50 years (1920 -1970 gg.).

It is these rapid population increases that double that prove that this process cannot go smoothly. It depends on the duration of the existence of populations (logical, biological, environmental). This indicator cannot be the same everywhere - in some countries and regions it is accelerating, while in others it remains unchanged or declining. So, for example, because of the plague from 1348 to 1377. the European population has declined by more than 40%, and it took more than a hundred years to restore the population

Demographic development consists of long periods of evolution and brief qualitative shifts or periods of demographic transition (changing types of population reproduction) and demographic revolutions.

The demographic revolution (population explosion) is the fast pace of natural population growth, which exceeds the growth rate of past decades. According to some estimates, a population growth rate of more than 2% per year, at which the population doubles every 35 years, is considered to be fast population growth. At a moderate pace, the population increases 2 times every 50 years, and at a slow pace every 200 years.

A population explosion is a type of population reproduction in which the world’s population increases dramatically. A characteristic feature of this explosion is the rapid change of generations that barely live up to 40 years. The term "population explosion" first appeared in the middle of the 20th century, when mankind found effective means of combating mass diseases

In developing countries, the process of reducing mortality has been accelerated. In the period after the war, the mortality rate decreased by 2.6 times, from 1950 to 1955 by 23.3, and from 1990 to 1995 by 9.1 times. Population growth in Africa, Asia and Latin America was explosive. This was the most powerful demographic explosion, it became a world one, because the rate of increase in the world's population is determined by the rate of increase in developing economies. So, for example, in the period from 1950 to 1970. On average, annual population growth increased from 1, 8 to 2%, and from 1990 to 1995. it decreased to 1.6% (table. 1).

demographic economic population gross

Table 1. The population growth rate

	Population growth rate,%


The developed countries
Developing countries
North America
Latin America

2. The dependence of economic growth on population growth

In various subsystems of the world economy, it is noticeable that population growth is not the same. Based on this, many scientists and researchers talk about the dependence of optimal economic growth on the smoothness of population growth. And economists analyze the relationship between economic development and population growth.

There are several approaches to the analysis of the relationship economic development and population growth. The main approach is that it is demographic variables that are the most important element of socio-economic development. The basis of this approach is the following scheme: rapid population growth causes a decrease in the growth of savings and savings, also increases population growth and creates difficulties in its use, because of the rapid population growth, the quality of labor resources decreases (due to a decrease in spending on education and health) and there is a slowdown in technical development, the amount of resources per person is reduced, and as a result, there is a slowdown in per capita GDP growth.

Population growth and GDP per capita are compared in order to find out the level of influence of population growth on economic development. Over the past decades, with a few exceptions, the level of economic development is directly proportional to the coefficient with low reproduction of the population and high life expectancy.

According to table 2, the growth rate of GDP per capita for the years 1980-90 increased with a decrease in population growth in the 1990s. This trend can be seen in developing countries, and most clearly in even less developed countries. But at the same time, the decline in population growth in industrialized countries from 0.6 to 0.5 was not accompanied by an increase in per capita GDP. The same situation in low-income countries. In other countries, population growth could go in parallel with an increase in per capita income. In a number of countries with a low level of development, the problem of maintaining minimum needs is the main one. In the 1980s, population growth rates in the poorest developing countries were negative. That is why, for a number of countries, the cause of the deterioration in socio-economic development was population growth.

Table 2. Population and GDP growth rates (PPP)

	Population, %	GDP per capita, %

Developing countries
Underdeveloped countries


Middle developed countries

3. Demographic policy

Demographic policy is a purposeful activity of state bodies and other social institutions in the field of regulation of population reproduction, designed to maintain or change trends in the dynamics of its size and structure.

A population policy has arisen due to difficulties in the socio-economic development of the countries of the world. This was also facilitated by the position of Western countries, which believe that control over population growth is the most important condition for socio-economic development. In a communiqué of the heads of state and government of the leading Western countries in Houston in 1990, it was noted that sustainable development of countries requires that population growth be in balance with economic resources. Maintaining this balance is a priority for countries that support economic development.

In demographic policy, there are two goals: increasing the birth rate and natural growth and reducing the birth rate and natural population growth. The first is typical for developing countries where there is a population explosion, the other for economically developed countries.

To implement the goals of population policy, certain methods are being taken. They can be divided into economic, administrative and legal, educational (propaganda). Among the economic measures that are aimed at stimulating the birth rate include paid leave and various benefits for childbirth, benefits for children depending on their number, age and family composition, various loans, loans, housing and tax benefits, etc. .

Administrative and legal measures include legislative acts regulating the age of marriage and the conditions of divorce, the attitude to the use of contraceptives and abortion, the property and social status of the mother and child in the event of a family breakdown, the working regime of working women, etc.

Educational (propaganda) measures are aimed at forming public opinion, norms and standards of demographic behavior, determining attitudes to religious and other traditions and customs of population reproduction and family planning policy (intra-family regulation of childbearing), to sex education and youth education, etc.

The most common demographic policy was in the second half of the XX century. On the one hand, due to the population explosion, and on the other, the demographic crisis. Many politicians and scientists saw a way out of this particular policy. Demographic policy has become perhaps the main means of restraining population growth in the first and acceleration in the second.

The United Nations paid a lot of attention to these issues. Under its auspices, world population conferences were held: in 1954 (Rome), in 1965 (Belgrade), in 1974 (Bucharest), in 1984 (Mexico City), and in 1994 (Cairo). In 1967, the United Nations Population Promotion Fund (UNFPA) was established. Since the 1960s The UN conducts systematic polls of governments on population policy issues. They are also discussed at sessions of the UN General Assembly. In 1992, they entered the agenda of the World Conference on Environment and Development. Of the individual documents, the World Population Plan of Action adopted in Bucharest in 1974, which contains many specific recommendations on the implementation of population policies, is of particular importance. Then, at conferences in Mexico City and especially in Cairo, it was further developed with the inclusion of a number of fundamental changes.

Conclusion

Population growth is increasing. It has never been smooth. Somewhere it was accelerating, but somewhere on the contrary it remained unchanged or declining rapidly. I would like to note that the highest growth rates are occurring to this day in the countries of Africa, the Middle East and Latin America.

It is developing countries that provide the main population growth in the world. More than half of the population growth comes from these countries: India, China, Brazil, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nigeria, China, etc. In industrialized countries, the situation is reversed: the population is declining, zero or negative natural growth. All this creates the threat of a demographic crisis, and possibly depopulation in these areas.

When assessing the demographic situation in the world, it becomes clear that the impact on the economic situation is not only the total number and population growth, but also its age structure - the division into groups according to their ability to work.

It is the measures of demographic policy that can solve the world's population problems.

List of sources used

1. Batmanova E.S., Tomilov P.S. World economy and international economic relations. - Yekaterinburg, 2005 - 111 p.

2. Lomakin V.K. World Economy: Textbook for universities. - M., 2007 - 735 c.

3. Maksakovsky V.P. Geographical picture of the world. Book II.

4. Population Change and Economic development. Oxford, 1985, p. 42. World Economic and Social Survey 1999. UN, p. 307.

5. Free Encyclopedia Wikipedia. - Access mode: http://ru.wikipedia.org. - Date of access: 04/09/2012.

6. CIA - The World Fact Book / - Access Mode: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/historical-collection-publications/index.html. - Date of access: 04/13/2011

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The general population growth is growing. For 1950-2000 it increased by 2.4 times - from 2.5 to 6.1 billion people. Over a long historical period, the time periods for doubling the population are reduced. The first doubling occurred in 1500 years (the beginning of our era - 1500), the second in 300 years (1500-1800), the third in 120 years (1800-1920), the fourth in 50 years (1920- 1970), the fourth in 48 years (1970-2018)

The main aspects of demographic development. Demographic development consists of long periods of evolution and relatively brief qualitative shifts or periods of demographic transition and demographic revolutions. Under demographic transition It means a change in the types of population reproduction. It coincides with the transformation of the pre-industrial system of productive forces into the industrial one. The demographic revolution is an integral part of the demographic transition.

Term demographic revolution or population explosion, means unprecedentedly high rates of natural population growth that exceed the growth rates of previous decades. According to some estimates, annual growth of 2% and higher refers to fast growth, in which the population doubles every 35 years, moderate - every 50 years, slow - about every 200 years.

Table 13.1

Population growth rate,%

Subsystems and Regions	1950-1955	1965-1970	1990-1995	1995-2000
World	1,77	2,04	1,46	1,33
The developed countries*	1,21	1,10	0,60	0,41
Developing countries	2,04	2,53	1,75	1,59
Africa	2,15	2,59	2,51	2,37
Asia	1,91	2,44	1,55	1,38
Europe	1,00	0,66	0,16	0,03
Latin America	2,66	2,58	1,72	1,57
North America	1,70	1,06	1,02	0,85

* Including Eastern Europe.

Population growth in developing countries in the second half of the 90s was four times higher than in industrialized countries (1.6 and 0.4). The highest population growth rates are observed in the countries of the Middle East and Africa (2.2% in 1950-1955 and 2.4% in 1995-2000). In tropical Africa, the preservation of demographic stereotypes is facilitated by objective factors associated with high child mortality, the spread of infertility, and persisting polygamy. High population growth rates persist in South America.

The population explosion is not a new phenomenon in demographic history. In Western countries, the highest population growth rates were in 1760-1820, when the US population increased by almost 6 times, Britain - by 1.8, France - 1.2, Germany - 1.4, Italy - 1, 1 time. No less impressive changes in the population of this group of countries occurred in the years 1820-1860, when the US population increased by more than three times, Britain - by 1.4, Germany - by almost 1.5 times. The birth rate in now industrialized countries was 3.78% in 1820, in 1901 it dropped to 3.01%.

The rationality of the phases of population reproduction is largely determined by the socio-economic organization of society. Restructuring of the type of reproduction depends not only on reducing mortality, but also on socio-economic transformations. The type of birth rate is largely determined by the type of family and the nature of economic relations in it. In a backward agrarian economy, large families predominate, where relatives are united by common economic activities and responsibilities, where the flows of goods are directed from younger ages to older ones. These relations determine the economic feasibility of maximizing fertility.

In an industrial society, the family loses its economic function, the flow of goods in it changes direction, which determines the economic feasibility of childlessness. Therefore, in many developing countries, improving health and well-being, which can lead to a significant increase in life expectancy and lower child mortality, will play a more important role in reducing population growth rates and the overall growth rate than in Western countries, where the reproduction rate has fallen to how modern means of preventing and terminating pregnancy have spread.

Placement of the population. Major population gains are provided by developing countries. In the first half of the 50s they accounted for 79%, and in the second half of the 90s - 97% of the increase in world population. More than half (60%) of population growth comes from 10 countries. India alone accounts for 20% of global population growth. These processes led to the redistribution of the population between the various subsystems of the world economy. If in 1950 about 2/3 of the population lived in developing countries, in 2000 - 80%, then in 2025 their share is expected to increase further to 84% (Table 13.2).

Table 13.2

Distribution of the world population by subsystems

and regions (million people and%)

Regions and countries
World, million people	2521,2	3696,1	5266,4		7823,7
in %	100,0	100,0	100,0	100,0	100,0
The developed countries	32,2	27,3	21,8	19,6	15,5
Developing countries	67,8	72,7	78,2	80,4	84,5
Africa	8,8	9,6	11,7	13,0	16,6
Asia	55,6	58,1	60,4	60,8	60,4
PRC	22,1	22,6	22,0	21,2	19,0
India*	14,2	15,0	16,0	16,7	17,0
Latin America	6,6	7,7	8,4	8,6	8,9
North America	6,8	5,2	5,3	5,1	4,6
Europe	21,7	17,7	14,6	12,0	9,0
RF	4,1	3,5	2,8	2,4	1,7

* Forecast.

And so on: World population prospects. The 1998 revision. V. 1. Comprehensive tables. UN. 1999.

The increase in the share of developing countries was mainly due to Africa and India. The share of industrialized countries of the West decreased from 32 to 19.6%. Such shifts strengthened the differentiation in the distribution of population and productive forces. Developing countries account for 80% of the population and only about 20% of VMP (37% of the purchasing power of currencies). In this subsystem of the world economy, the largest countries in the country are located (over 100 million people). These include China, India, Indonesia, Brazil, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nigeria. The share of industrialized countries in the global population is declining. Natural growth is very low. In North America, Western Europe and Japan, it is carried out on a narrowed basis (gross reproduction rate of less than 2.0%). A similar picture can be observed in Eastern European countries. This poses a threat of depopulation or a demographic crisis in these areas. In the Russian Federation, the demographic situation in the 90s was characterized as crisis. A change in the population, a decrease in the share of a country, or a subsystem in the world’s population changes the potential of countries in the world economy.

A significant impact on world evolution has a demographic development of the world. The demographic situation, the situation with the use of labor, largely affect the state and prospects of economic and social development, the alignment of economic and political forces in individual countries and regions.

The general population growth is at an increasing pace of 1950-1997. more than doubled from 2.5 to 5.8 billion people, at the end of 1999 it crossed the line (6 billion people)

Population growth across regions is uneven, in developed countries the growth rate is stably low. The growth rate in countries with economies in transition has slowed sharply. So in Russia, Ukraine, the Baltic countries and of Eastern Europe There is a process of natural population decline. Slowed growth rates in China and Southeast Asia, also in Latin America, that is, a depopulation type of population reproduction is forming.

The main thing was an increase in the concentration of the world's labor resources in developing countries. 2/3 of the world's resources are in countries with the lowest GDP per capita. Developing countries account for 80% of the population and only 20% of the gross world product (GMP)

Demographic development consists of long periods of evolution and relatively brief qualitative shifts or periods of demographic transition and demographic revolutions.

The demographic transition is associated with a change in the types of population reproduction. It coincides with the transformation of the pre-industrial system into the artificial one.

The population explosion - a consequence and manifestation of the process of modernization of the traditional type of population reproduction - is extremely high birth rate and mortality.

Demographic revolution or population explosion means high rates of natural growth, which exceed the growth rates of previous decades by 2% and higher. In which the population doubles every 35 years, moderate every 50 years, slow every 200 years, a characteristic feature is a quick change of generation, having lived up to 40 years. The transformation of the traditional type of natural reproduction began with a decrease in mortality.

By the middle of the 20th century, there was a rare decrease in mortality, especially in developing countries, 2.6 times due to effective relatively cheap means and means of combating diseases.

Reproduction of a population is a process of its continuous renewal as a result of fertility and mortality (generational change and natural population growth).

In assessing the demographic situation, the age structure is also important - the division into able-bodied groups, children, and pensioners. General shift in population structure in the second half of the 20th century. consists in an increase in older ages (over 65 years) and a decrease in younger ones (less than 15 years) other than Africa.

One of the important changes in the demographic structure is the growth of the elderly (over 80 years) in 1955.

0.6%, in 1990-1%.

These changes are reflected in the demographic load factor - representing the ratio of the share of younger and retirement ages to the share able-bodied population Since 1975, this ratio has been decreasing from 75.2% to 62.4% in 1995. This means that for every 100 people of working age, 63% of people are of working age. The exception is African countries, where growth is due to younger ages rejuvenation.

Aging of the population - an increase in the share of non-residential people over 65 to 12% or more in the total population (60 years in Russia) in developing countries. In the XXI century. - This process extends to the whole world. These changes can radically change the future of the global economy.

Change specific gravity regions in the world’s population led to a change in their share in world GDP, for example, the share of Europe decreased by 1.5 times, the share of Asia grew by more than 2.5 times.

Aging of the population creates not only socio-economic problems, but also political ones:

The economic burden on society for working taxpayers is increasing. Today, three workers support one senior citizen.

After 20 years 1: 1, this will put a strain on pension funds, which means higher taxes and this reduction in savings and decrease investment resources, which means a fall economic potential. Increased social spending: health care, elderly care. Thus, aging becomes an important financial and economic factor.

Therefore, to maintain the pace of economic development and living standards, developed countries will have to face immigration problems, but many countries are not ready to accept a large number of foreigners.

How to increase the labor force?

Extend work experience;

Deferred retirement;

To provide jobs for young, elderly 70-75 years old.

Aging of the population is changing the structure of material production, services, as it is actively oriented to the needs of the older generation, its purchasing power. The term "gray-haired dollar" appeared (educational institutions, clinics, housing construction, travel agencies).

The social situation is complicated by the rapid process of urbanization (increasing poverty, etc.).

The political aspects of the aging of the population is that older voters will support those political leaders who will suit them.

Thus, to solve the problem of an aging population, governments must develop a new social policy designed to recognize the value of the older generation: reforms social securityhealth insurance, etc.

A sound demographic policy associated with a system of measures to ensure population growth, birth control and family planning is essential. This issue is discussed internationally.

1982 World Assembly on Aging

1989 International Demographic Conference in Prague

1993 Ninetieth Session of the Inter-Parliamentary Union in Canberra

1995 European Gerontological Congress in Amsterdam

1993 was declared the Year of Older People and Generation Solidarity in Europe

1999 The UN declared the International Year of Older Persons.

Course work

Demographic development of Russia: current status, problems and solutions

INTRODUCTION

Demography is the science of patterns of population reproduction. The term "demography" appeared relatively recently, in the middle of the XIX century. in 1855, a book was published by the French statistician Jean Guillaume. It was called "Elements of population statistics, or Comparative demography." Translated from Greek, this literally means "description of the people." Currently, this term is broad, well-known, and demography today is no longer a separate discipline, but a whole system of demographic sciences.

The most important wealth of any country is its inhabitants. In order to objectively determine what and how to do in the name of a better life for people, you need to know the population size and its dynamics, especially the composition and reproduction of the population, the main regular and trends, territorial demographic differences, to ensure competent demographic forecasting to justify and conduct effective policies.

Today, the need for knowledge of the basics of demography is especially acute for specialists in the field of state and municipal administration, urban planners, economists of various profiles, entrepreneurs, as well as classes in the fields of education, upbringing, culture, art and a number of other areas.

The aim of the course work: to study the modern demographic development of Russia.

The objectives of the course work:

Learn to analyze the demographic processes and the demographic situation in Russia;

to clarify the features of the demographic situation and trends in its development in Russia.

As a result of writing a term paper:

the main demographic patterns were revealed;

acquired practical skills in analysis;

the assessment of the demographic situation in Russia is carried out.

CHAPTER 1. SUBJECT AND METHODS OF DEMOGRAPHY AND POPULATION STATISTICS

1.1Demography in the global economy

The world economy is a historically developed and gradually developing system of national farms countries of the world interconnected by world economic relationsdeveloping on the basis of the international geographical division of labor.

The potential of the global economy as a whole is formed in the aggregate of economic resources.

The main resources of the global economy are economic resources. They include: natural, labor, scientific, capital and entrepreneurial resources.

I would like to dwell on the labor force.

Labor resources are part of the population with physical development, mental abilities and knowledge necessary for the implementation of useful activities in social production.

The basis of labor resources is the dynamics of demographic indicators in a country or in a particular region. It with varying intensity affects all phases of the reproduction of labor resources. The changing demographic situation, of course, primarily affects the stage of formation of new labor resources.

Natural movement, population dynamics, changes in the structure of the population and the reproduction of labor resources are closely interconnected and interdependent processes.

The total population change almost equally depending on changes in fertility and mortality. The indicators of these basic demographic processes in Russia are constantly and intensively deteriorating.

The population growth is not the same in different subsystems of the world economy. Such a phenomenon serves as a definite basis for maintaining long-standing ideas about an optimal population and optimal economic growth. These ideas are usually associated with the population of individual countries and regions, and in recent decades - with the global population. This gives impetus to economists to analyze the relationship between population growth and economic development.

Information on early forms of population registration in Russia has been preserved by historical monuments. Chronicles indicate that the ancient Slavs had the beginnings of accounting in connection with the collection of tribute. The starting date for statehood for Russia is the beginning of the Rurik era or the baptism of Vladimir. In Kievan Rus and the Novgorod Republic in the IX century. fiscal surveys were carried out. Tatars in the occupied territories conducted censuses with the aim of taxing the population, levying taxes and distributing duties.

An assessment of the demographic processes taking place in Russia was partially given by G.K. Kotoshikhin. He believed that “Moscow bondage impedes the development of the country” and, consequently, population growth. In more detail this topic was considered by Yu.G. Krizhanich. He saw the main reason for the promotion of population growth in prosperity. economic activity, and the obstacle is in cruel control and arbitrariness.

The St. Petersburg Academy of Sciences, founded in 1724, played a large role in the development of demography and population statistics in Russia.

Members of the Academy of Sciences noted the need for universal censuses, developed a population registration form; substantiated government measures, now called demographic policy measures, identified the most pressing problems of population development.

In the XVIII century. In Russia, the main sources of information about the inhabitants of the country were revisions of the population, church registration of performed rites, and administrative-police records. Audits of the population, conducted by decree of Peter I in 1718, were carried out for almost 150 years - from 1719 to 1856. In total, there were 10 audits. The taxable classes were subject to accounting, and at first they were counted, only males, nobles, the regular army and navy, officials and foreigners were not counted. Revision did not extend to the territory of Poland, Finland, Transcaucasia and Kazakhstan. Each revision lasted several years. The first audit ended in 1727, almost 10 years after the decree. The second (1743) and third (1761) audits were carried out for four years; the fourth revision (1781) - 6 years, the fifth (1794) - 15 years, the sixth (1811) - 2 years, the seventh (1815) - 12 years, the eighth (1833) - 3 years the ninth (1850) is 1 year, the tenth (1856) is 4 years. For most reserves, the under-accounting of the population was about 2%.

The second half of the XIX century. It was a period of the emergence of population statistics as an independent field of scientific knowledge, studies of the population expanded and deepened, international contacts began to develop, recommendations were developed to unify the methodology of statistical work, and scientific and statistical information was exchanged. Russia strove not to stay away from the development of world practice of population statistics. In 1897, the first All-Russian Census population. Earlier, in a number of cities, including St. Petersburg, Moscow, Kiev, Odessa, Riga, Warsaw and others, urban censuses were conducted.

The rise of Russian demography was facilitated by the All-Union Population Census 1959, 1970, 1979, 1989, 2002. and publishing their materials in the open press.

It is difficult to overestimate the fact that population statistics have ceased to be material “For official use”. Information about the population has become available not only to employees of state statistics and management, but also to researchers and other users, including schoolchildren and students. Current population records form the basis of regularly published Demographic Diaries.

2 The main directions of research in demography and population statistics

The development of fundamentally new measurement methods and revolutionary advances in computer technology are accompanied by the emergence of new areas of research. In the field of demography and statistics, this resulted in the formation of a single international bank on the population of all countries of the world and in conducting comparative cross-country studies. The entry of society into the era of informatization, which has new technologies for the collection, storage and processing of information, has allowed several countries to introduce new system population accounting - population registers. This, in turn, creates the possibility of forming new directions for the analysis of demographic phenomena, processes, relationships, the specific content of which is still uncertain and not fully connected.

One of the newest and most interesting areas in the study of the population is nascent psychodemography, which examines the relationship between mental and demographic phenomena.

An extremely relevant area of \u200b\u200bdemographic research was the study of population migration. Analysis of population migration is important as an independent field of study of territorial mobility of the population and as a prerequisite for understanding the mechanisms of functioning of labor markets at the national and international levels, as a way of cultural integration of peoples, the interpenetration and mutual enrichment of social standards in all spheres of human life.

The actual direction of statistical and demographic research is forecasting the size and composition of the population. Forecasts are developed for the regions and cities of the country, the whole country, regions of the world and the world as a whole.

Population statistics find practical application in municipal, regional, sectoral and national level in assessing the current demographic situation, developing a state demographic policy, developing socio-economic programs, strategic planning for the development of territorial-industrial complexes. Marketing strategies of firms are also developed using statistical information on the composition of the population and demographic prospects within specific product markets. Solvent demand for medicines, toys, sporting goods, furniture, etc. determined by the number of potential buyers, their image and standard of living. All this is reflected in the information, which is also based on population statistics.

In its modern form, population statistics have not yet exhausted all the possibilities of forming new areas of research, which is an expression of the objective process of differentiation and integration of scientific knowledge. So in the future we can expect qualitatively new approaches to determining the subject and methodology of research in the field of regional population statistics. This is due to the specifics of the composition of users of population information and the characteristics of their requirements for the content of statistical data.

New directions in statistics may also arise as the practice of interdisciplinary research on population problems expands.

1.3 Sources of population data

Population data sources are sources of demographic information. They differ in: 1) the degree of coverage; 2) the scale or nationality; 3) the nature of the data; 4) the time to which the data relates; 5) the method of the data obtained; 6) the nature of the publication.

Sources of population data for completeness and reliability are divided into primary and secondary. The primary sources of demographic information contain the direct results of processing and comparing the collected statistical data and obtaining calculated indicators based on them. Secondary sources of demographic information are the result of author’s calculations and estimates based on the primary sources of demographic information. Thus, the primary demographic information is the source information, and the secondary is the transformed primary demographic information.

Sources of information about the population and demographic processes are selected data from the current official statistical reporting. In addition, information on the population is provided by the internal affairs bodies, municipal and other territorial services, as well as voter lists compiled for selected companies. In addition, there is an extensive information fund of medical-demographic and sanitary-epidemiological, educational profile, in structural units civil defense services and a number of public organizations, but the most accurate and reliable information about the population is provided by population censuses; they all have their own characteristics and distinctive principles of conducting, publishing results.

The general census of the Russian Empire was carried out in 1897. In the USSR (1922-1991), including the Russian Federation, a population census was carried out in 1926, 1937, 1939, 1959, 1970, 1979, 1989, 2002. The last census of Russia was carried out in 2010.

A population census is a special, scientifically based statistical operation, the purpose of which is to obtain information on the size and composition of the population. A population census provides the collection of demographic information about absolutely the entire population of the country, makes it possible to study and systematize demographic characteristics and processes, and is the basis for developing forecasts of the size and structure of the population and a number of other forecasts.

It must be emphasized that there is an irrelevance of the goals of censuses to the specific private interests of the state. Information census forms no administrative decisions regarding specific people are used.

Population censuses mainly contain the following information: 1) the number of permanent and present population, its settlements by region and settlement, including urban and rural settlements; 2) migration, according to the ratio of place of residence and place of birth; 3) population structure by gender and age, marriage structure of the population, family structure of the population, family and household; 4) the structure of the population by nationality, mother tongue and spoken language, citizenship; 5) the composition of the population in terms of education, sources of livelihood, social status, employment in sectors of the economy; 6) birth rates and childbearing plans; 7) living conditions; 8) other indicators.

The basis of all types of demographic work is the source demographic statistics. Processing and analysis of primary demographic statistics provide secondary demographic information - developed tables, publications, monographs, articles, web pages, etc.

To carry out various kinds of high-quality work, and above all work of a demographic nature, it is necessary to have complete, detailed, multi-aspect, reliable information. Population data must be systematically collected, updated, summarized, analyzed.

CHAPTER 2. DEMOGRAPHIC DEVELOPMENT OF RUSSIA

1 The size and composition of the population of Russia

Population is one of the most common demographic characteristics. The scientific concept of population began to take shape in the 18th century. and associated with the name of the French economist Victor Mirabeau.

Population is a basic indicator of population statistics. This indicator is important both in itself and as a basis for calculating many analytical indicators (general fertility and mortality rates, natural population growth, population density, etc.).

Information on the population at a certain date is obtained from the census. IN statistical compilations in the census period, the population is usually given at the beginning or end of the year.

The data in table No. 1 reflect the dynamics of the population of Russia, as well as a change in its composition in terms of the process of urbanization, which is characterized by the share of the urban population.

Table 1 - Dynamics of the population of Russia in modern borders according to the censuses

From the table you can see how from a country where the population was represented primarily by rural residents, Russia has turned into a highly urbanized state, in which only 27% of the population lives in rural areas. In addition, these tables show the process of depopulation of the Russian population that has begun, i.e. decrease in its number.

The patterns of population change are associated with the type of demographic reproduction of the population and the main factors that determine it - fertility, mortality, migration. The nature of population dynamics, even in the same country, does not remain constant, as happened in Russia, where population growth was replaced by population decline. A serious socio-demographic crisis, which covered several areas of reproduction of Russian society at once, is due to dramatic changes in the political, economic, social relations that have occurred in Russia in recent decades. The current demographic situation in the country is characterized by permanent and long-term depopulation, that is, "a decrease in the absolute population of the country or territory or its reduced reproduction, in which the number of subsequent generations is less than the previous ones."

The dynamics of changes in the population of the Russian Federation from 1990 to 2008 is shown in figure No. 2.

Figure 2 - The population of the Russian Federation, million people

Population analysis includes population composition.

The composition of the population is studied from different points of view. Be sure to study the composition of the population by age and gender. It is important to study the family and national composition of the population, the distribution of livelihoods. For our country, which has a vast territory, an important role is played by the study of the distribution of the population over the territory.

First of all, the composition of the population is studied by gender. The sex ratio in the total population is an important characteristic of the viability of the people, it is taken into account when studying the patterns of population reproduction.

The gender structure of the population depends on the current effect of three factors: the ratio of boys and girls among those born alive, the differences in mortality between men and women in different age groups, and the differences between men and women in the migration turnover.

The ratio of men and women in each country depends on its history and socio-economic living conditions.

Today's Russia is characterized by demographic aging of the population - an increase in the share of people over working age in the total population and a change in the structure of the burden on the working-age population. This is clearly shown in tables No. 2 and No. 3.

An aging population is not a hallmark of our country alone. This process is beginning to take on a global character and affects almost all developed countries. The effects of an aging population are diverse. The load on the healthcare system is significantly increasing, the economic behavior of people is changing, and the problems of pension provision are aggravating.

Table 2 - Distribution of the population of Russia by age groups.

Table 3 - The value of the demographic load factors in Russia.

2.2 Reproduction of the population

Reproduction of the population is a constant renewal of generations of people, i.e. fertility and mortality.

At the end of the XIX century. according to the data on the provinces of the European part of Russia, the birth rate was almost at the biologically possible maximum.

The decrease in the intensity of birth began in the second decade of the 20th century, which was accompanied by the First World War and the Civil War, but the decline in the birth rate in Russia became especially acute since the late 70s. The total birth rate was in 1970 - 14.6, in 1980 - 13.4, in 2002 - 9.8; for 1980 - 2001 he declined by more than a third. The overall fertility rate is lower for the urban population than for the rural population, and it is declining faster than for the rural population.

Change total ratio birth rate in Russia in the second half of the XX century .. In rural areas, the birth rate is stably higher than in urban settlements. But over time, this differentiation is smoothed out, since in the countryside the intensity of births decreased more rapidly. We can talk about the spread in rural areas of urban standards in the field of reproduction of the population as an integral part of the urban lifestyle.

Mortality is an essential demographic component and is determined by the frequency of deaths in the social sphere. Along with fertility, it is the basis of the facts of the process of reproduction of the population in the world. Moreover, before the beginning of the twentieth century. mortality was a determining factor on which the population depends. Currently, in all economically developed countries, mortality has stabilized at a relatively low level; as a result, the role of mortality in the reproductive process has sharply decreased.

In Russia for the twentieth century. mortality has decreased dramatically, the life expectancy of Russians has more than doubled. At the same time, in the post-war period, changes in attitudes and value systems, a decrease in the birth rate and aging of the population, and a number of other reasons determined a constant increase in mortality. The overall mortality rate for 1970-2002. almost doubled: from 8.7 to 16.3%; it increased especially rapidly in the 90s. Since 1992, a problem arose that exacerbated the absolute and relative number of deaths over the number of births from year to year, which means a decrease in population.

IN modern Russia the overall mortality rate is much higher than in other developed countries of the world.

The low level of life expectancy in Russia indicates the lack of effectiveness of domestic health care. The main problems here are the extremely low level of financing for healthcare, the meager salaries of doctors, the inability of most people to use paid medicine, etc.

The mortality rate, life expectancy and health of the population depend on the state the environment. According to aspects of the World Health Organization and expert assessments of domestic scientists, the state of public health depends on 18 - 40% of the state of the environment.

2.3The current state of the demographic situation in Russia

According to Rosstat materials, the number of resident population of the Russian Federation as of January 1, 2008 amounted to 142.0 million people, of which 103.8 million people (73%) were urban residents and 38.2 million people (27%) were rural residents . The reduction in the number of Russians in 2007 (by 212, 1 thousand people, or by 0, 15%) was the smallest over the past 12 years (in 2006 - by 533 thousand people, or by 0, 37%). In conditions of natural population decline, migration has become the only source of replenishment of its population. However, the migration volumes are such that only during the “peak” 1994 were sufficient not only to compensate for the natural decline, but also to ensure an increase in the number of Russians.

The contribution of the migration component to population growth steadily decreased almost until 2003. An increase in migration growth in subsequent years with a decrease in natural decline led to a slowdown in the rate of population decline. In January-August 2008 the process continued: the natural decrease was 58.4% replaced by migration growth (in January-August 2007 - 44.9%; for 2007 as a whole - 54.9%, for 2006 G. - by 22.5%).

In 2007, an increase in the number of residents was observed in 24 constituent entities of the Russian Federation in 2007 (in 2006, 14, in 2005, in 11 constituent entities of the Russian Federation).

Changes in the population in 2007 had virtually no effect on the structure of settlement. More than 40% of Russians live in Central and Southern federal districts, where the population density is the highest and is respectively 57 and 39 people per 1 sq. km. km (the average population density in Russia is 8, 3 people per 1 sq. km). The most sparsely populated by January 1, 2008 were the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), the Kamchatka Territory, the Magadan Region, the Nenets, Chukotsky and Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Districts, where the population density was less than one person per 1 sq. Km. km

The current demographic situation in Russia is determined by three main problems.

The first problem is that at the end of the twentieth century, Russia entered a long period of depopulation (population decline): over the 14 years from 1992 to 2004, the natural population decline amounted to 10.4 million people, and the total losses due to partial migration compensation - 4.85 million people. Moreover, the process of population decline is gaining more and more speed every year, which leads Russia to the "leader" among states with a decreasing population.

The second problem is related to the fact that depopulation is caused not by conjunctural time factors, but by fundamental long-term processes, therefore the hopes for an automatic exit from it as the socio-economic situation improves, are groundless. At the turn of the 1970s, the country developed such parameters of population reproduction, in which generations of children were less than the generation of parents. To date, parental generations are replaced by children only 60%.

The third problem is determined by the fact that the development of depopulation in Russia has significant differences from developed European countries with a decreasing population. It is formed, on the one hand, as a result of the birth rate, low even against the background of these countries: 1.35 (estimate of the total birth rate for 2004) in Russia and 1.88 in France, 1.80 in Norway, 1.73 in The Netherlands, 1.71 in the UK, 1.65 in Sweden. These losses are determined by mortality rates that have no analogues in the European region: at the beginning of the 21st century, Russia lags the dozens of the most developed countries in the world (USA, Belgium, Canada, Norway, etc.) by 15-19 years for men and 7- 12 years for women.

None of the domestic and foreign forecasts made by research teams or official structures provides for the possibility of overcoming depopulation in the current demographic conditions. If the current birth rate and mortality rate and the absence of migration growth remain, the population of Russia by the beginning of 2025 will amount to 122.0 million people, having decreased by 21.4 million people compared to the beginning of 2005.

In fact, the demographic dynamics in Russia may look much worse, since in the absence of a targeted demographic policy, it is very likely that mortality will not stabilize, but will continue to grow (to the life expectancy of men 51.5 years, women 65.4 years) and will occur gradual transition to a one-child family model (up to a total birth rate of 1.18). In this case, the population of Russia by the beginning of 2025 will amount to 113.9 million people, having decreased by 29.5 million people compared to the beginning of 2005. Compared with the option to maintain current fertility and mortality levels, the country's population by the end of the first quarter of the 21st century will be 8.1 million less. The main differences will appear after 2015.

CHAPTER 3. DEMOGRAPHIC FORECASTING: PROBLEMS AND WAYS OF SOLUTION

demography statistics population

The history of the development of demographic forecasting was largely determined by the requirements of practice, the needs of governments, various state bodies in population data, an understanding of the role of the demographic factor in the development of society, and the state of scientific research in the field of economics, statistics, mathematics.

Initial attempts to determine the “demographic future” most often came down to determining the future population size in conditions when the rate of change in population and its age and gender structure were, on average, practically unchanged over a long period.

Population projections are an important element integrated long-term socio-economic planning. It is almost very difficult to find any area of \u200b\u200bthe economy and social lifewherever long-term planning the data of demographic forecasts are used.

Demographic forecasts are classified: by the time for which they are carried out, by the methods of their implementation, the purposes for which the future is estimated, etc.

Demographic projections are, as they say, active. They allow not only to limit the determination of future characteristics of the population. Comparing the values \u200b\u200bobtained and obtained as a result of perspective estimates and those parameters of demographic processes that can be identified, the degree of discrepancy between the desired and possible characteristics of demographic processes is determined. If such differences are large, then society can take measures to eliminate or reduce the possible imbalances in these processes. Hence, population projections are an important element in managing public processes. They allow, on the basis of knowledge of the prospects for its development, to purposefully influence the development of socio-economic phenomena, to correct them in the direction necessary for the country.

At present, there is an increase in negative phenomena in the demographic sphere, such as a drop in the birth rate, unstable marriage and high mortality, migration flows, and an aging population. The consequence of this is depopulation - a decrease in the population that began in Russia in the 90s. and passing rapidly.

Changes in the level and quality of life of the population were transformed into acute socio-economic problems, which had no less acute demographic consequences. Among them:

unfavorable living conditions resulted in a violation of the dynamic stereotype of higher nervous activity in a significant part of the population of Russia. This, in turn, caused a weakening of the immune defense, the development of pathological processes, depressive states and other mental disorders.

the state of “wear and tear” and “fatigue” of the population leads to the fact that the generation of children does not reproduce the generation of parents not only quantitatively, but also qualitatively; the population is declining, human capital is being destroyed, and this is a threat to national security.

there is a process of disintegration of social ties and weakening of social potential, which is comparable to the depletion of nature in the absence of its restoration.

the liberal policy of the state is aimed at maintaining the economic well-being of large business; the survival of the bulk of the country's population is not actually taken into account; as a result, the national potential of Russia is being destroyed and the protest resource is growing.

In 2001, the Government of the Russian Federation approved the Concept for the Demographic Development of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2015. Key areas for solving the demographic problem were identified. It was about creating conditions for increasing the birth rate, reducing high mortality and competent management of migration flows. In the process of implementing this concept, certain results were achieved. However, much remains to be done to tackle demographic issues.

Demographic issues are an urgent problem for Russia. Over the past five years alone, the population of our country has declined by more than 2.5 million people. However, in 2006 there were some positive trends. Moreover, for the first time in the months of 2007, good indicators have been outlined to increase the birth rate. In Russia, on average, more than 700-900 thousand people die annually. These data clearly confirm the importance and necessity of measures taken at the federal level to overcome the demographic crisis in the country.

Of course, such a global problem as a demographic one cannot be resolved in a short time, therefore, in matters of demography, it is necessary to plan not for a year or two.

In order to stabilize the population and form the preconditions for subsequent demographic growth in 2001, the Government of the Russian Federation approved the Concept for the Demographic Development of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2015.

The Concept formulated the basic principles, tasks and approaches to the content and directions of the strategic course of the Russian Federation in the field of demography, as well as the main directions of demographic development: improving health and increasing life expectancy, stimulating fertility and strengthening the family, migration and resettlement. In each direction, priorities were identified.

For example, in the field of stimulating fertility and strengthening the family, priorities are support for families with two children or more; increase of material well-being, level and quality of family life; creation of socio-economic conditions favorable for the birth, maintenance and upbringing of several children, including conditions for the self-realization of young people, including obtaining a common and vocational education, decent wages, as well as the opportunity to provide family housing; development and implementation of a development strategy for affordable forms of family arrangement for orphans, including children with disabilities.

The main measures to reduce mortality are the implementation of a traffic safety program, the suppression of the import and production of surrogate alcohol products within the country and the formation of a desire for a healthy lifestyle among citizens.

However, negative trends in demographic development are still quite stable, and it is important to continue active work in this direction. Although on this moment much is already being realized, in particular, financial support for women during maternity leave, child care, compensation for part of the payment for preschool educational institutions, provision of basic maternity capital, an increase in the cost of the birth certificate and support for children in difficult situations.

It is no secret to anyone that improving the demographic situation depends on the provision of housing for citizens, in this case, young families. A family with a home is free to have two or more children. Some subjects of the Russian Federation with regional programs to provide housing for young families stimulate fertility in the region. Indeed, the well-being of the whole society, our future depends on the well-being of each individual family.

CONCLUSION

The concept of demographic development of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2015, developed on the basis of Decree of the President of the Russian Federation dated January 10, 2000 No. 24 “On the Concept of National Security of the Russian Federation”, is a system of views, principles and priorities in the field of regulation of demographic processes.

The implementation of the Concept involves the formation of a mechanism based on: 1) the unification of the efforts of the state and society in developing common approaches to preserving the demographic potential of Russia; 2) coordination of actions of authorities at the federal, regional and municipal levels aimed at improving the demographic situation in the country; 3) the development of targeted federal and regional programs aimed at solving basic social and demographic problems.

If the main goal of the Concept, to ensure stabilization of the population of Russia, is realized, our country will implement the minimum program and maintain, albeit with losses, most of its demographic potential, which is very important for its favorable geopolitical future. Due to what it will develop the demographic potential in the future - a complex issue, the solution of which cannot be unambiguously defined. With a high probability, Russia will have to prepare for a large reception of powerful migration waves into its territory, and the composition and its tolerance of the future will depend on the controllability of the process of adaptation of immigrants russian society, and his nationality for a peaceful compromise solution of interethnic conflicts, to some extent the inevitable conditions of a multinational state.

IN long term it does not seem so fantastic to assume that the population in the vastness of our great country could increase significantly. It is still premature to speculate on what this completely new super-ethnos will be and whether it will be preserved as a whole. It can only be argued that it will continue to be multinational and that the original Russian core will preserve a sufficiently vivid material and spiritual heritage in it.

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