Experts tell us whether it is worth buying the currency now. Experts tell us whether it is worth buying currency now. Is it worth buying dollars in February?

The government is still discussing the issue of which currency will be best to keep savings in 2018. Most are of the opinion that storing savings in Russian rubles is the most profitable. This is based on the factor of reducing inflation in the country. According to experts, in 2018 the euro exchange rate will change noticeably and begin to decline, but U.S. $ may add to the cost.

What to consider when choosing a currency for storing savings in 2018

Difficult choice: bank or piggy bank

1. American currency. In 2018, there was an increase in the value of the dollar. But do not forget that although the dollar will increase in value, it has a tendency to fluctuate. In addition, the leadership and political views of the current American president cast doubt on maintaining the course in the same price range.
2. European currency - it is believed that from 2018 the euro will also be unstable on financial market, which leads to the fact that citizens try not to get involved with this type of currency.
3. Russian currency— the ruble will depend on indicators on the oil market. It is believed that oil prices will lead to strengthening Russian ruble. This means that the ruble will strengthen against European and American currencies. Also, the inflation rate in the country will have a positive impact on the strengthening of the ruble. Therefore, keeping savings in rubles is the most profitable and correct decision.

To buy or not to buy currency

In order to understand this issue, it is necessary to weigh the pros and cons of such investments. Let's look at the positive side first:

you can invest any available amount in currency, this method of investing money is available to everyone;
long-term investment of currency is likely to work for you due to the appreciation of the exchange rate;
currency can be quickly sold at any convenient time at the market price.

All these advantages undoubtedly attract small investors, but there are also disadvantages, including:

Even professionals cannot say with certainty when it is most profitable to buy currency;
cases when money was invested at the peak of growth, followed by a pullback, is not a rare phenomenon and it is almost impossible to predict such moments in advance, and this is fraught with financial losses;
banks always sell currency at a higher price than they buy, which leads to inevitable expenses when converting dollars and euros into rubles. Consequently, any transaction implies losses that will need to be covered by future income;
problems cannot be ruled out when purchasing foreign currency in the required quantity from large investors;
in 2018, you cannot be 100% sure that if you buy dollars and euros, you are guaranteed to have a stable profit. You can only count on a one-time increase in income from an investment;
keeping currency in cash is ineffective, since it is no longer an investment. Money should work, and not lie as a dead weight;
You need to think in advance where exactly to store your currency so as not to become a victim of robbers.

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What do experts think about this?

People who are little educated in such matters are accustomed to relying on the opinions of experts. Especially considering the ambiguity of the situation today. Owners of small capital are at a loss, not knowing what to do correctly so as not to lose their hard-earned money. Is it worth buying dollars and euros now? Literally 1 hour ago the following information was received from supporters of investments in foreign currency– they believe that if the investment is long-term, then, of course, yes.

Since there is a constant growth of the currency against the Russian ruble. This is true, but if we consider the profit margin, it is insignificant, because the inflation rate is much higher.

There are cases when a sharp rise in the currency can cover all costs, but this rarely happens, and, as a rule, it is accompanied by an immediate rise in prices.

Answering citizens’ questions today regarding the advisability of purchasing euros and dollars, experts unanimously say no, simply because at the moment, their value has reached its peak. This is evidenced by the strengthening of the ruble.

How will events develop in foreign exchange market in the future, it’s difficult to say. In this regard, people who are not enlightened in this matter are advised to wait and not rush to run to exchange office for foreign currency, since even experts do not take responsibility for making any forecasts, it is completely unclear how dollars and euros will behave.

Everyone has the right to dispose of the funds they earn and, by and large, is responsible for their own capital. The main thing is to think carefully about everything when making this or that decision so as not to end up a loser.

What currency is best to store money in?

It happens that a person has made a firm decision to transfer his savings into currency, but does not know which currency. There is no need to rush in this matter; you need to understand that investing is not as simple a process as it might seem at first glance.

Here it is worth listening to the advice of financiers who recommend distributing capital between different currencies:

convert part of the money into dollars;
convert part of the money into euros;
leave part of the money in rubles.

Without sufficient understanding of such matters, it is difficult to determine the proportions. The market situation is constantly changing and you need to quickly navigate so as not to burn out or remain in the red.

You need to know when the moment has come to change the currency ratio. Making the right decision in this matter is not at all easy for a person who does not have financial education. This risks carrying out a transaction at the most inopportune moment.

There is currently no clear answer regarding whether it is worth buying dollars or euros. It all depends on the time and circumstances. Buying currency today is not particularly profitable.

In what case do people buy currency, and what determines its fall and growth?

The purchase of foreign currency is mainly due to the fear of a fall in the ruble exchange rate and inflation. To avoid losing their savings, many people prefer to invest in dollars and euros. Regarding the fluctuations of this pair, for several years now this mark has not exceeded 10%.

Foreign currency is directly dependent on oil. When oil (also called black gold) becomes cheaper, the dollar and euro strengthen their positions and rise in price. With the ruble the situation is exactly the opposite.

According to the latest information, in 2018, according to analysts, oil will remain in the moderate range. Prices largely depend on the following factors:

from transactions of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC);
from global demand;
from conflicts in the Middle East;
from economic crisis in Venezuela;
from shale gas production in the United States of America.

What to expect from 2018 financially

Everyone understands that the ruble depends on the price of oil and the situation is such that black gold will remain at its annual maximum. Accordingly, the national currency will remain quite strong.

Studying the dollar exchange rate chart for last year, it is clear that the American currency has not risen in price for quite a long time. Not once since the sharp jump, when it reached a price maximum of 60 rubles per dollar, has it been able to exceed this threshold, as it was before. We all remember the crisis when they gave 80 rubles for a dollar.

There is no point in buying foreign currency now; if oil prices rise, the dollar will inevitably fall in price, and it is not yet clear by how much. It is possible that they will fetch 80 or even 100 dollars per barrel.

The well-being of the population has sharply declined; people do not have the opportunity to play in the foreign exchange market. The income is barely enough to buy the basic necessities.

As of February 9, 2018, carry trade operations are not so profitable. The reason for this dismal trend was the Bank of Russia’s reduction of the key rate to 7.5%.

As for the overall situation on the foreign exchange market Russian Federation today, it is quite stable. But it’s still worth listening to the advice of experts and not rushing to buy currency with the aim of subsequently converting it back into rubles after the exchange rate rises. It is possible that in 2018 the exchange rate of our national currency will not only remain stable, but also strengthen.

There is no need to rush in any matter, especially when it comes to finances. When solving the dilemma of whether it is worth buying dollars and euros now, you need to carefully weigh and think about everything. According to expert information received 1 hour ago, it is worth refraining from such operations for now.

Experts in the field of finance and economics have found it difficult to make new forecasts over the past few years. The situation with exchange rates in the world is unstable. The US presidential election and Brexit had a significant impact on the situation. For this reason, experts are careful when giving their comments. They insist that their predictions about the most successful investments in any currency are not 100% correct, and for the one who accepts this decision, there is a risk of losing part of the funds.

Currency for capital investment in 2018

It is important to note that in Russia it is observed. Products and services are becoming more expensive, despite the government’s desire to improve the situation, this is well noticed ordinary people from regions with wages 20-27 thousand rubles. The country's economy is thrown out of balance by factors such as the price of oil and military operations in a number of areas.

Russians do not believe that they will be able to save money for such significant purchases as apartments, cars and countryside real estate, as the ruble weakens. This explains their desire to invest all available funds in tangible objects, such as household appliances, electronics, clothing and shoes, or spend money on repairs. They assume that this will help them survive the crisis, if the worst forecasts come true. However, you should not spend all your money on purchasing dollars or euros, thinking that this currency is the most profitable for storing money in 2018.

Experts advise not to spend all your money on goods you actually don’t need. Today, electronics become obsolete quite quickly, so, for example, several expensive televisions will not become “assets”, and in a couple of years they will not be able to be sold even for half the original cost. But despite the vague future and the crisis, you need to save some money.

50% of the allocated funds are kept in the bank in rubles;
25% - in euros;
25% - in dollars.

With these ratios, it is possible to save part of the savings even with sharp fluctuations in the exchange rate. For people who frequently travel abroad, it is recommended to increase the share of funds in the currency they use most often. If a person does not intend to leave Russia, it is worth using the classic scheme and not making risky experiments by urgently buying or selling dollars and euros.

How to store currency?

Cash, of course, can be kept at home and depreciate due to inflation, but it can also become part of deposit or savings account. You can invest money in a savings program long term or use a safe deposit box. If you want your money to grow and generate active income, then it is better to invest it in projects that, according to experts, will be successful. You can also convert money into gold bars.

The dollar exchange rate in the new year will depend on events in America and the position of the euro. The rise in price of one currency will affect the performance of another. If the euro loses its position, the dollar will depreciate. It is imperative to consider your own plans for the future when you are thinking about how to store your currency. When you have the opportunity to go abroad, it is better to purchase currency in advance, since it is not known when the exchange rate will decrease, or whether it will decrease at all.

Dollar

Judging by the events of past years, we can say that shocks in the economic world occur unexpectedly. When a market redistribution occurs in any country, global upheavals that affect the oil industry, this immediately affects the exchange rate. The economic picture of the market is such that the savings of the majority of the planet's inhabitants are kept in dollars, but they also receive salaries in dollars, which gives them the opportunity to save significant amounts without losing money.

Euro

In 2016, the European Union was not without turmoil, but it is still a stable structure with strong market players, countries such as France and Germany. In these countries, the government is working hard to maintain stability, so the euro will remain a reliable currency for the whole world. The advanced EU economy offers new and better ways to make a profit. When choosing a currency, you should rely on your plans. If you are going to travel to the USA, you can transfer part of the funds into dollars, and if you are going to Europe, you can purchase euros.

A number of European Union countries have their own weaknesses, as the situation with Greece showed. It is probably not worth betting on the euro in the next ten years, although today it is quite reasonable to transfer some spare amounts into euros.

Ruble

Almost every economist believes that the most significant part cash you need to hold in the currency that is used in your country of residence. That is, if a person receives a small salary in rubles, does not plan to leave the country and purchases goods in rubles, then it is worth keeping savings in this currency. But you need to take into account that the Russian economy is highly dependent on oil, so you need to familiarize yourself with the state of affairs in this industry to make forecasts.

What's the best option for storing your savings?

As previously noted, the most profitable currency for storage is the currency that is constantly used. If this forecast seems vague, study the assumptions of economists. According to experts, in the new year exchange rates will look like this:

Minimum dollar value- 64.6 rubles, maximum - 84.5, will remain at 69.2 throughout the year;

Minimum cost euro- 68.3 rubles, maximum - 90.8, will remain at 74.2 throughout the year.

You should not buy currency at the beginning of 2018, because at the end of the year the value of the dollar will be less. The euro will cost approximately the same at the beginning and at the end of the year. To win the difference in rates, you need to carefully review global financial news.

You need to track changes in exchange rates; for this you can use a special online application connected to the bank. It is important to determine the bank that offers the most favorable conditions, since the commission affects the purchase or sale transaction so much that it can practically “burn” the entire difference, and the transactions will actually become meaningless.

Despite the favorable forecasts of financiers compiled for 2016-2017, the Russian economy is far from ideal. The global crisis, significant fluctuations in exchange rates and sanctions deal it a serious blow. Economic instability and the slow rise of the ruble are forcing the public to save in euros. This monetary unit is famous for its consistently high performance. And recent expert forecasts have shown that in 2018 (in the first half) the euro exchange rate in Russia will rise. This fact was confirmed by Sberbank of the Russian Federation. But will this trend continue?

Causes of euro instability

Experts' forecasts come true somewhere between 67-82%. It is quite difficult to say more precisely how the currency will behave, especially if the scenario is drawn up for a long period - a year or two. Why? It's simple. In the case of the European currency, its fluctuations directly depend on the demand for the dollar - the stabilization of one unit leads to a fall or slowdown in the growth of another. They are interconnected, so the circuit works in both directions. But the growth of the American currency is not the only reason for the euro's surges.

Experts make a forecast for the euro exchange rate for 2018, based on the economic situation in the EU countries. The cultural, social, and political situation within the borders of these states is important, because to carry out financial transactions and they use it for calculations. So it's tense political situation in one of the EU states will lead to a loss of position monetary unit. This is the situation in the world and Europe.

What is happening with the European currency in Russia. It has been rapidly rising in price lately. Reasons for this:

• sanctions imposed on the state by the European Union;
• rise in price of fuel, the price of which increased by 11-14.5%;
• a decline in oil exports to the West, as a consequence of its reduction in price;
• previous inflation;
• state of the Russian economy, etc.

As long as sanctions exist to prevent free trade, there is no need to talk about the stability of the euro exchange rate. The price for 100€ will be prohibitive. Until Russia restores stable and regular oil supplies to the West, forecasting the exchange rate will differ from reality.

What forecasts do government experts make for 2018?

Leading economists in Russia and the Ministry of Finance do not predict any sharp changes for the worse in the future. Despite the fact that it is extremely difficult to propose an exact scenario for the development of the exchange rate, according to analysts and officials, the value of the EU currency will fluctuate between 43-45 rubles. But such a price has not been seen on the financial market for more than 5 years. Such a positive development scenario does not inspire confidence, especially if you study the tables of the euro’s behavior by month, which have already been posted on their pages large banks Russia.

Experts working at Sberbank predict the following scenario.

The forecast of Sberbank analysts, presented in the table, shows that in 2018 the euro exchange rate will continue to be unstable. The price for 1 € in the first months of next year will increase to 85-90 rubles. At the same time, future events in the world “hint” that this figure is far from the limit. The main news of August-September 2017 was the issue under consideration regarding England’s exit from the EU. If the exception comes true (more than half of the British voted for the country to leave the European Union), there will be no need to talk about the stability of the price of the EU currency.

But still, analysts of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation are building optimistic scenarios, assuming an early end to the crisis situation in the foreign exchange market. Hence the low figures for the euro for 2018, which ministry analysts announced in the hope that oil prices will rise by the middle of next year - the price is expected to rise to $80 per barrel. But analysts from independent Russian agencies offer the following oil forecasts for next year.

According to the table, the maximum price increase that can be expected at the very beginning of the year is 60-65 per barrel.

What to expect: growth and decline in the value of the euro?

Opinion independent experts and economists disagree. The discrepancies in the scenarios amount to 5-12 rubles. Many foreign experts believe that the EU currency rate will rise to 100 rubles by mid-2018. This figure is explained by the fact that Russian economy it will not be possible to raise prices in the coming months due to current sanctions and a decline in the level of exports of goods. Although not all Western experts predict such a leap. Analysts from one of the largest bank holdings The USA - Morgan Stanley - sees no reason for the euro to rise above the 80 ruble mark. This is their latest forecast, based on the growth rate of the Russian economy. In 2018, growth will be at least 1.78%.

Despite disagreements in figures, both Russian and foreign analysts and economists are convinced that December 2017 and January next year will be months of active growth of the euro in the Russian Federation. Financial experts note that sharp jumps in the exchange rate are not expected, but warn of a possible decrease in value if Russia manages to restore oil sales at a higher price. But still, you should not rely on the accuracy of the scenarios they offer.

When reviewing the latest analytical scenario, it is advised to take into account the situation in the country and the world, in particular in the EU. Economists recommend that those who have already saved a certain amount in euros should not change it in the near future. And for those Russians who would like to buy foreign currency, it is wiser to wait for the price to fall. According to forecasts, it is expected in November 2017 (a slight decrease in cost - by 2.4%) and from September 2018.

AiF.ru found out from financial experts in which currency - dollars, euros or rubles - will it be most profitable to store savings this year?

“We change currency every quarter”

Gleb Zadoya, head of the analytics department at ANALITIKA Online:“The beginning of the year for investors around the world was marked by a strengthening of the ruble and a decrease in the value of the dollar and euro. This trend is supported by many factors, including fundamental ones, such as the balance of inflow and outflow foreign exchange earnings in the course of international trade, the firmness of the positions of the budget, the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank, as well as the general increase in GDP.

This year it is better to store funds in a basket of several currencies. At the beginning of the year - up to 80% in rubles and 20% in dollars and euros; by the middle of the year, the portfolio can be increased if the dollar and euro fall (the ruble may strengthen during the World Cup). And by the end of the year you can shift in a different proportion - 60% ruble, 25% dollar and 15% euro.

Of course, this applies to strategic actions, i.e. intraweek jumps, for example, in Brexit or the Olympics, the World Cup, presidential elections, corrections due to the collapse of markets will require shifting currencies in the portfolio, but the total volume of assets in currencies for their optimal growth should be with an advantage in domestic currency.”

“Either the dollar or the ruble”

Evgeny Volkov, head of the brokerage operations department of Rosevrobank:“The Russian currency is actively growing and strengthening. This is caused by the increase in the cost of Brent oil. It is most profitable at the moment to keep savings in rubles, since this growth will most likely continue for at least a month. But in general, the dollar is the most stable and deposits in this currency are always considered more profitable. “In addition, in the medium term, the dollar will begin to win back lost positions on the world market.”

“A strong ruble is the best investment”

Roman Blinov, expert at the International Financial Center:“While the national currency is growing, and the demand for Russian assets will dominate common sense, that is, there is a chance that a new devaluation of the ruble against the dollar and euro will not occur.

Taking into account the fact that there are presidential elections this year, we do not expect any significant surprises on the foreign exchange market. We also do not expect a change in the economic paradigm and way of life in the country, and most likely it will be after May - July 2018 that we will actually see everything that we have been waiting for so long. Namely, raising the retirement age, increasing tax burden per population.

Starting from the summer of 2018, we will be able to encounter not only a strengthening of the role and share of the state in most issues in the country, but also real positive changes. And this can lead to a change in a number of vectors in economic development country for the better and will lead to a new round of ruble growth.

In this regard, there is no need to buy bags of currency and wait for the ruble to US dollar exchange rate to reach 150 rubles.”

“The most profitable investment is in the dollar”

Artem Deev, leading analyst at Amarkets:“In 2018, it is better to bet on the dollar, which promises to become the growth leader among currencies developed countries. Market participants believe that the dollar exchange rate will receive significant support from strong macroeconomic data from the United States, implemented tax reform, as well as the Fed's continued commitment to higher interest rates.

US household activity is projected to remain at high level, continuing to drive growth national economy, simultaneously influencing the rise in US bond yields.

The “American” in the game against the ruble may also be supported by a decrease in hydrocarbon prices. In the coming months, countries participating in the OPEC+ energy pact will return to the issue of the advisability of further compliance with the agreement to reduce oil production. This alone may be enough for a reversal in oil prices, which is already at risk of happening against the backdrop of the indicated US plans to increase the production of raw materials. In other words, in the coming months investors will again talk about the problem of overproduction, which is fraught with the return of former sellers to the market. The potential for a decline in oil prices exceeds 10%.”